  | ||||||||||
A mile and one quarter Turf Purse $250,000 All horses, 4 years old and up Picks & Analysis by:
|
||||||||||
| ||||||||||
| PP | NAME |
|
| |||||||
| 1 | 29/1 Mecke
|
Solid, hard trying colt who has been first or second in half of his 36 starts. Took the honors in his first graded stakes win last start and is as good now as he has ever been. There is a lot of speed in here for a race of this distance, but it might be a little short for him as he really likes to marathon. Speed marks look a little light compared to some, but hard to earn huge figures at marathon distances. The price is a huge overlay and I can fault no one for taking a shot at this price. A must use in any trifecta bet. Could be boxcars. |
This will be the shortest race this horse has seen in his last eight starts, so distance won't be a problem. Crushed a starter allowance field by 21+ lengths two back, then came right back to win a Grade III event. Horses overall record is solid, and there's no knocks against the jockey. A viable longshot. |
|||||||
| 2 | 19/1 Manager
|
Filly jumps in with the boys for the first time on her recent past performances. Lightly raced girl really prefers the dirt, but has had some success on the green. She really is a monster at two miles, and this could be a little short for her. Add it all up and there is a lot going against her. Not her preferred surface, or distance, and much tougher company. No absolute shock if she does, but not my pick today. However price is more than fair and bottom of trifecta is a possibility. |
I think the odds would be shorter on this filly if it were a dirt race. Distance isn't a problem, and she's shown some versatility in her running style. Overall figures are light. |
|||||||
| 3 | 4/1 Dowelly
|
One tough lady right here. She has amassed a great record and has been first or second in 20 of 22 starts with 13 wins. No stranger to racing the boys either, and has beaten them with regularity. Distance is no problem and the price is more than fair for one with her credentials. Main problem is she likes to race on the lead, and so do a number of others in here. She has won from off the pace before, but no assurances that her sub-par jockey will use this tactic. Deserves top billing, but not a mortal lock. |
Number 2 ranked older filly tackles the boys. She's handled them before, at this distance, on the turf. Check out the gaudy speed figure she ran while beating the boys in a Grade I event in week 1047. In the exacta in 17 of 18 routes. Not bad, not bad. Fresh and ready to go, but the low percentage jockey will have to let her run her race. |
|||||||
| 4 | 32/1 Paint
|
Only one on-the-board finish in his last eight starts, and less than $34k earned in 10 starts tell you all you need to know. Pass. |
It'll be a tough task to break the turf maiden in this event. Beaten by double digit lengths in three of her last four while facing cheaper. Pass. |
|||||||
| 5 | 9/2 Kate2
|
Well bred dude who has put together a fine record along with 10 wins. The problems in here as I see it is that he seems to like the dirt a little more than the turf. His speed marks are much higher on the main track. The distance also seems a tad bit out of reach for him. Factor in that not-so-good jock and I think I will pass. Would like more if the price was sweeter. |
This is another horse who has a decent enough turf record , but probably prefers dirt. Stalker/closer may get first run at chasing down the leaders, and has run some speed figures that would be competitive here. Price is a little too short for my liking. |
|||||||
| 6 | 7/1 Lasthope
|
If nothing else I think the distance is right. At least his trainer thinks so, and his trainer is packing a wonderful record. I can see this guy being in the mix, I just can't see him getting his picture taken. His speed marks are just a little light compared to some in here, and so is the company he keeps. Top jock takes the reins, so he has that going for him. With his record and connections it would be no shock to see him win, but I am just not sold. Mixed signals. |
This horse is a specialist at the distance and surface. Racked up three straight wins in stakes events before an ill-fated switch to the dirt. A tiring third in high priced allowance event in latest. Good jockey aloft, a trainer who knows how to win the big ones, and the price is certainly right. Very dangerous. |
|||||||
| 7 | 6/1 Zgreat1
|
This is one classy veteran right here. Lots of cash on his card and 14 great wins notched on his belt. However, he has some huge obstacles to overcome today. I am sure he likes the dirt much more than the grass, and his favorite style of racing on the lead will not help with other speed signed on. A possibility that his sharp trainer will take him off the pace today. No surprise if he pulls this off, but I am leaning against. |
This horse is the main threat to keep Amanda Jane company on the front end. Tired in the stretch in most recent efforts, and an easy lead isn't likely here. $2 million dollar winner shouldn't be ignored, but my guees is that the legs may get rubbery in the stretch. |
|||||||
| 8 | 13/1 Knowlton
|
Looks like a carbon copy of a few others in here. Wonderful record and a turf specialist. Distance is perfect and jock can ride. Speed figures, money won, and company kept look a little light, but no surprise if he does quite well today. Chance if he improves at a nice price. |
Horse has a nice race record, but this is quite a step above the starter allowance horses he's been facing lately. Speed figures are a bit light compared to most in here. High percentage jockey helps the cause. |
|||||||
| 9 | 20/1 Paint
|
This one looks to be in a little deep today. Lightly raced five-year-old has only three wins to his credit, with the last one coming in a nw2x allowance. He appears to need the lead to win, so he has a major problem there. Distance also might be out of reach so I am passing. |
Ran second in recent stakes attempt, but overall seems to be a cut below many of these. I'm not confident that this horse really wants ten furlongs either. Best used underneath if you must use him at all. |
|||||||
| 10 | 15/1 Runninw
|
Pretty tough mare jumping in with the boys for the first time it appears. She has been handled beautifully while coming through her conditions before being stakes tested. She has done quite well in those non-graded affairs. Distance looks fine and jock can ride, but these are different horses than she is use to facing. Mild surprise if she pulls this off, and shouldn't be the price she is. Even though I don't think she will win, I just can't dismiss her with no thought. Adds depth to the field. |
One run closer will need a fast pace up front and clear sailing on the turn for home. Closed willingly in last to get the win, but the speed figure was nothing special. If the speed collapses, this mare may be able to land a piece at a price, but I'm looking elsewhere for the win. |
|||||||
| 11 | 13/1 Northbank
|
What happened? Where did those last two come from? Before those I could have dismissed him with no problem. He will have to improve some more to pull this off, but stranger things have happened. Not my pick, but I will certainly keep an eye out for him. Price is a magnet, but jock ain't much. I really look for him to take a step backwards against this company, but I will also say I warned you if he does well. |
Horse seems to be putting it together at the right time. Back to back wins, including a ten length romp two back going longer. Nice 100+ speed figures in those two races, but prior figures are light. Has the horse reached a new level of ability, or will he regress to his prior numbers. Tricky read. |
|||||||
| 12 | 16/1 DKyoung3
|
Well bred horse that with his record appears to try hard every time. However, his need the lead style will hurt him badly in this spot. His trainer has hired the worst rider he could find, so if he doesn't like him enough to get him a rider, I don't like him with my money. Pass. |
Another horse who will want to be out winging on the front end. Has taken a lot of money in his recent races, but hasn't found the winner's circle to reward the faithful in awhile. Low percentage jock takes the call. |
|||||||
| 13 | 7/1 Lizzie
|
Tough six-year-old with a very fine record. His last two starts have shown where his future is, and its running much shorter than today's ten furlongs. If this were a sprint he would be my man, but pass at this distance. Tab for when he shortens up. |
Consistent sort who has been facing lesser of late. Likes to race on or near the lead, but may have trouble keeping up with Jane and Pharrun early. Would be a surprise. |
|||||||
| 14 | 11/1 Shangrila2
|
Lightly raced seven-year-old that appears to have his work cut out for him. Has won half of his 12 starts, but this is the deepest he has ever been in. No stakes wins on his card yet and it would surprise me to see this be his first. Post is no bargain either and neither is the company. Pass. |
Goes turf-to-dirt and gets an extra furlong off his last race. Got blitzed by 28+ lengths in a Grade II affair two back. Appears to be an outsider in more ways than the post position. |
|||||||
The Pick - 3-7-1 |
The Picks: |
|||||||||
| NAVIGATE THE HIGH NOON SITE
|