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Restricted Stakes - Purse 250,000 - Fillies & Mares, 4 years old and up 5 furlongs Dirt Picks & Analysis by:
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| PP | NAME |  KINGAB |  FLAGDOWN | |
| 1 | 7/2 Fatattack |
Eighteen times first or second in only 28 lifetime starts tells you all you need to know about her heart. She always tries her best. She is a 100% confirmed front-runner, and resents any other tactic. In a race this short there is always a lot of speed, and this race is no different, but this girl looks to be the 'fastest of the fast'. A number of quality closers will be running at her late, but I think she holds on for the win. Tracks top jock only adds to the attractive package. |
May be the quickest horse from the gate, and will need that speed after drawing the rail. The horse has popped and stopped in recent efforts, so the cut-back to 5 furlongs may help her carry her speed. She's run three straight 100+ speed figures, and has a jock up that should be able to help ration her speed. Dangerous if able to get an easy lead, but I think that there's too much other speed in here for that to happen. |
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| 2 | 8/1 Elshadi |
Lately she has been keeping the very best of company, but has not been real successful at it. This race might be a bit to short for her, though sprinting is what she probably does best. If she couldn't win an alw-1n at this distance, I can't see her winning this. Some of her speed marks are fast enough, but her other numbers make her an also-ran. Quality girl, but appears off her best form at the present time. Mixed signals, but I think I will pass. |
Should appreciate the drop from graded stakes to restricted stakes company. Most recent race can be forgiven as it was her third race in four weeks. Has been freshened since then. Shows the ability to stalk the pace which should come in handy here. This mare could wake up in this one, but low percentage jock dampens the appeal. |
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| 3 | 25/1 Whirlaway |
Lightly raced mare who appears to be getting better and better. Down the road she could develop into a top-notch mare, but she seems a bit ambitiously placed today. Not today, but tab and mark for later. |
Lightly raced mare comes back on short rest, a move that she's made successfully before. She's certainly stepped up her game in recent weeks, but I'm not sure she's up to the caliber she'll be facing here. Top jockey may help her to land a minor share at best. |
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| 4 | 6/1 5starfarms |
Veteran mare who has accomplished quite a bit in her fine career. She has absolutely no speed what-so-ever, but is something to see in the stretch. Will have to out-kick some other fine late runners today, but if she fires her best shot, she might not be denied. Not a big fan of late-closers, but no surprise if this girl gets her picture taken today. Threat with her best. |
Stretch running sprinter closed with a flourish to win a Grade III event at this distance. Just missed winning an open allowance race in most recent start, finishing a strong second. There should be enough pace in here to set up here kick, and the jockey knows how to win races. Price is right t an over-laid 6/1. Much to like. |
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| 5 | 12/1 Pureluck |
Eight-year-old mare will be a prize broodmare someday, but she is showing that she still has some running to do first. She is consistently posting speed marks in the high nineties, but will need a triple-digit number to win this. In a little too tough I think, so not my girl today. |
The 8 year old mare has been in the money in 11 of 15 sprints, so she obviously has talent. Gave way against NW4X company in latest, coughing up a 4 length lead in the stretch. Has shown the ability to win from just off the pace, but I don't think she'll be able to out-finish some of the other stalkers/closers in the race. I'll take a stand against. |
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| 6 | 99/1 Maccamlc |
Appears hopelessly outclassed and deserving of her odds. Pass. |
She doesn't show a speed figure that would be competitive with this level of competition, and she's been soundly beaten in her recent attempts. Deserving longshot. |
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| 7 | 20/1 Theburglar |
No wins in recent memory make this allowance type filly a tough pick today. Last eight starts show only a place and a show in much easier company, so I don't see her beating this group. Pass. |
Brings more speed to what already projected to be a fast pace. She ran a big race in Arizona a few weeks back, but otherwise has been disappointing. Appears to be an outsider here. |
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| 8 | 15/1 Bobbkhw5 |
Throw out the last two starts that were on a sloppy track and the turf, and you find an old gal that seems to be on the improve. Has the right style for this, as she appears to be able to stalk the pace and get first run on the closers. Price and apparent ability make her worth a second glance at that sweet price. Looking to take a flyer on a price with a chance? This could be your girl. Maybe. |
Draw a line through her last two races as she didn't seem to handle either the slop or the turf. Put together two solid efforts in races prior to those attempts while facing lesser caliber than she meets here. Last journey to Vermont didn't prove to be successful. Mare appears to be a tryer, but may not have enough talent to succeed against this group. |
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| 9 | 5/2 Futurestar |
Ultra tough mare who is a virtual 'win-machine' with wins in almost half of her 42 starts. Absolutely void of any speed, she is a blur through the stretch, and half the time she runs down the leaders. Getting up in only five furlongs will be asking a lot, so at that price I will try to beat her today. No surprise if she wins, and it will be fun to see her and the other closers flying in the lane, but at that price, at this distance, I am looking elsewhere today. The one to beat. |
Morning line favorite has speed figures that tower over most of these. She's already won the High Noon filly and mare turf sprint; now tries to duplicate that win on the dirt. Stone closer will be flying at the end, but may not have enough real estate to work with. Last race took a bit more out of her than the trainer would have liked, but may be able to win this on class alone. |
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| 10 | 30/1 Rd3 |
Not one on-the-board finish in her past eight starts make her a total reach today with this group. Pass. |
Mare hasn't been close to getting her picture taken in quit some time. Cut back in distance from recent route attempt may help. Appears to be an outsider. |
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| 11 | 19/1 Teamfoppa |
Lightly raced filly with an apparently bright future ahead of her. As soon as her trainer figures out her best distance, she will be even better. Not today I think, but a filly who can become very good. Wouldn't shock me to see her run well today, and at that price worth a small wager. Food for thought right here. |
Proven horse for the course has recorded all three of her victories here in Vermont. Ha only faced the starter seven times in her career, so she may still have room for improvement. Throw out her latest attempt as she wasn't able to handle the distance. May be better at routing, but has won sprinting before. Prefer to use on the bottom of the exotics. |
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| 12 | 7/2 Airjordyn |
This is another girl who has earned the right to always be feared. She has been first or second in over half of her lifetime starts, and has banked a nice sum of cash along the way. I shy away from her today however, because I think she likes a much longer race than today's five furlongs. I don't like the way she finished in her last start, a six-furlong allowance race, so I think she will have even more trouble with this distance. I could be wrong, but even with a top rider up, I think I will pass today. |
Consistently runs 100+ speed figures, though she hasn't found her way to the winner's circle in awhile. She's burned up a lot of money along the way, too, losing at short odds in several races. Likely exotics factor, but odds are too short for me to like on the win end. |
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The Pick - 1-4-9 |
The Picks: |
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