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Restricted Stakes - Purse 250,000 - Fillies & Mares, 4 years old and up 10 furlongs Dirt Picks & Analysis by:
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| PP | NAME |  KINGAB |  FLAGDOWN | |
| 1 |  Elf Mercy 11/1 |
Appears to be a cut below the best in here. This girl likes to run on the engine, and for a 10f race this affair has come up loaded with quality speed. Not hopeless, but pace scenario really plays against. Mild shock if she wins. |
Beat a short field in Stakes win at the Jersey Shore, but hasn't fared quite as well recently. Distance shouldn't be a problem as the horse routinely races at least this far, but the class may not be there. Coughed up the lead in cheap allowance field two back, and speed figs are light compared to some in her. Low percentage jock further dampens the appeal. |
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| 2 |  Let's Dance 47/1 |
At this stage of her career, with only a maiden win to her credit, she would seem to be completely outclassed. A major shock if she wins. |
Hasn't won in a long time, and doesn't seem to want to go this far. Tough to endorse in this spot. |
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| 3 | Baby Lock 54/1 |
On the board only once in her last eight starts does not bode well for this girl. Too far, wrong surface, and simply in over her head. Pass. |
Is another who hasn't visited the winner's circle in quite some time. Seems better suited to dirt and shorter distances. Was distanced in last attempt at 10f, and will probably be gasping for air again by the time they reach the top of the stretch. Pass. |
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| 4 | Sultry Shin 6/1 |
With so much speed in the race, this girls deep closing style should help her through the stretch. Big problem is I am not convinced, from what I can see, that she wants to run this far. Mixed signals, and no great shock if she does win, but I think I will pass. |
Is a closer in a race that may see a speed duel develop on the front end. 10f try in a restricted stakes race didn't pan out a few races back. In the money finish isn't impossible, but the odds don't offer enough value for me. |
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| 5 | Helper Stealing 5/1 |
Have to give great respect to any horse with the win percentage that she has. I don't care if they were starter allowance races or not. Off the pace style fits well here and jock is a help. Not sure she is this class, cause that ain't a lot of money won for so many victories, but we are about to find out. Lots to like, but she will be facing her toughest test to date. I am reluctant to pass on her, but I will. |
Has found the water a little deeper since leaving the Starter Allowance ranks. Distance not a problem, and this is another who will be making her run in the stretch. Earnings a bit light compared to some of the others, but you don't win 15 of 26 races by accident. Contender. |
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| 6 | Artful Clay 45/1 |
Just not a prime time player and looks to be in way over her head against this group. Nope. |
Hasn't run this far in her career, but race way back in week 865 shows she may be able to handle the stretchout. Strong kick got he job done in her maiden victory, but she'll need to improve on her career top speed figure of 87 to be anywhere near these. The best of the long longshots, but still unlikely. |
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| 7 | Grand April 5/2 |
Morning line favorite and one of the better mares around. Graded stakes winner has been first or second in 16 of her 34 starts. Likes to run on the front, but does show a win from slightly off the pace, though that was in the slop. With so much speed in here, and looking at her last three races with descending speed marks, no way am I gonna take 5/2 that she pulls this off in her present form. No shock if this classy lady does win, but not my girl today. |
Will appreciate the drop from graded company. The morning line favorite brings speed to the mix, and she's won at the distance before, so that's not a problem. The concerns are the low percentage jock and the suspicious drop her speed figures have taken in recent races. More than capable, if able to regain form. |
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| 8 | Red String 3/1 |
Top money winner in the field. Great win percentage. Graded stakes winner. Outstanding trainer. Best jockey. Quite a bit to like about this girl. Race might be to short for her, and there is a lot of speed in here to keep her company, but this is my pick to have her picture taken. |
Is the top money earner in the field, having amassed over half a million dollars. Lone off the board finish in her career came in a turf route. Speed is the name of the game, but she may face pressure from the horse starting on the far outside. The only question about the distance is whether she'll want more than the 10f she gets today. Good jock climbs aboard. Very live. |
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| 9 | Houston Bow 12/1 |
Not one in-the-money finish in her last eight starts would indicate that this girl is off form quite a bit. She didn't win eight races and over $130K running like this. Looks like she will make one great broodmare someday, and that time might be at hand. Hard to point at her in this field in her present form. Pass. |
Has been beaten by double digit lengths in last seven races, which include a couple of cheap allowance races. I don't see a turnaround happening here. |
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| 10 | Big Project 3/1 |
Looks to be almost a mirror image of the one I picked. Same racing style and can also boast of a fine record. Slightly worse post position, and jock not as good as the one on Red String. Upgrade big time if it suddenly rains, but unless it does, it looks like the runner-up spot to me. Don't think her trainer wouldn't love to win this, so I am sure she is ready. |
Led them in a merry chase in her last race, hanging on to win. May try to give Red String fits on the front end, as she appears to be a one-dimensional horse. Bounced after last 100+ speed figure, and may be a bounce candidate again. |
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The Pick - 8-10-5 |
The Picks: |
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