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Restricted Stakes - Purse 250,000 - All horses, 4 years old and up 9.5 furlongs Dirt Picks & Analysis by:
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| PP | NAME |  KINGAB |  FLAGDOWN | |
| 1 |  Pecan Turk 6/1 |
This is a solid non-graded type stakes horse who is very good at the moment. He has been well spotted by his trainer and has responded with a fine record. The distance, surface, and jockey are all fine, and he is not with out a chance. However, he has never done well against graded stakes horses, and we have a few of those types today. Trifecta fill in is best that I can see, but no shock if he does better than that. |
Enters on the crest of a two race winning streak, both 9f stake affairs. May not appreciate the extra half furlong of this race. The horse’s recent speed figures make him competitive in here, and he’s running on his home turf. Maybe. |
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| 2 | Starke T C 7/2 |
This is one tough dude right here. His outstanding record against graded stakes foes shows that he loves to win, and can usually be counted on to give his very best. There is a lot of speed in this race and he should get a great stalking trip from this post. Good rider signed on, and much to like about this one including the highest showing speed mark in the field. My pick in a very competitive race. |
Found his way back to the winner’s circle with the drop out of graded stakes company in latest. Grade I winner had been slumping of late, and that last vicory may serve as a springboard here. Should sit a good stalking trip and get first run on the early leaders. Talented jockey aboard adds to the appeal. Very live. |
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| 3 |  Alypain Brain 32/1 |
Solid allowance type horse finds himself in some awfully deep water today. No stakes success and no triple digit speed figures make him a definite longshot. Would be a huge surprise and I can't see him being photographed today. |
Has found difficulty of late against cheaper allowance company. Will find more difficulty against this caliber. Would be a major surprise. |
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| 4 | Prospector Paunchi 7/2 |
Multiple stakes winner brings a number of good things to the dance. He has outstanding speed and appears to try hard every time. Has posted some terrific speed numbers, and the distance is no problem. What I don't like is the other speed signed on and his cur of a rider. With this guy in the irons I would have to get a much bigger price to sway me. Upgrade big time if a sudden rainstorm. Playable, but be ready to curse the jockey. |
Talented veteran likes to run on the front end, and there’s not much early speed signed on for this one. Ran hard in Grade I outing in last before giving way, and should find the lead much easier for the taking here. Low percentage jock dampens the appeal, as does the horse’s occasional tendency to blow big leads. Still, lone speed is dangerous speed…(In the interest of full disclosure, I train this horse). |
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| 5 | West Of The Book 8/1 |
This one is certainly on a roll right now and is as good as he has ever been. Has taken the move up to stakes competition in stride and seems to be looking for more. This guy has blossomed under Socalman's care ever since he stole him for a paltry $50k six races back. This is his biggest test to date, and I don't think he can, but what a cool story if he does. Not without a shot at a great price. |
Former claimer has won back to back stakes races. Horse likes to settle near the back and make one big run. Has been running well of late, but may need a faster pace up front to be at his best. Would need everything to break his way, but a win isn’t impossible. |
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| 6 | Wooden Deputy 10/1 |
This is another solid, hard-trying non-graded stakes horse that gives his all every time. He always seems to bring home a piece and has a wonderful win record. I like the turf-to-dirt angle, and he does have a speed mark that could win this. Pretty good rider takes the reins, and the price is certainly a magnet. You could do worse than taking a stab here, but I'm not quite sold that he will get the money. Mixed feelings, but I think I will pass. |
Switches back to dirt and stretches out from latest attempt. A veteran of many stakes battles, but the horse still comes up light in earnings. One of many horses in here that like to settle mid-pack and make one run. A nice horse , but may find the water a bit deeper here. |
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| 7 | V. Ton 71/1 |
This mare is certainly where all pretty ladies desire to be. She is right in the middle of a crowd of handsome men. The problem is that when the gate opens they will no longer be gentlemen. Tough spot, and her trainer is to be commended for giving her a chance, but I would be shocked to see her pull this off. |
Likes to go to the front, but would be surprised to see this mare in that position here. Highest speed figure in the past performances is a mere 92. The deserving long shot of the field. |
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| 8 | Light Halo 13/1 |
No stakes success on his card, and only a few triple digit speed figures make him an outsider today. A tough open allowance competitor, but there are some graded stakes quality horses in here and I think it's just a little too tough today for this guy. Pass. |
Hasn’t been seen on the track in nearly three months, and picks a tough spot to make his return. May find the distance a bit too far based on the fade job in week 893. May be capable of a top three finish on his best day, but the guess here is that the horse will probably need the race. |
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| 9 | Pharrun Prospect 11/1 |
One time derby champ seems to have responded to his new trainers touch, and has racked up two consecutive stakes wins for him. His speed numbers are not what they once were, but he can occasionally run a huge figure. However, If he needs the lead to win he could be in big trouble with all of the other speed horses in here. Price and jock are both a magnet, and I can fault no one who is taking a shot at that price. Lots to overcome, but he has made a career of over $2 million beating the odds. Not without merit, but hard to say yes. |
This horse appears to be the only horse that may want to give Paunchi a tussle on the front end. Horse has also shown stalking ability in his win in week 970. The second highest money earner in the field has won his last two race at this distance on the front end, drawing away easily. The times for those race were at least a full second slower than Paunchi’s most recent efforts at the distance. Interesting to see how the veteran jockey will play this one. |
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| 10 | Count Dusty 22/1 |
What a beautiful record this one is sporting. Has a great win record in non-graded stakes and always seems to give his best. Race may be a little short for him, but it does set up right for his closing style with all the speed in the race. His speed figures say no, and his class with these is suspect, but at that price he could be worth a flyer or two. Probably not your winner, but I bet he tries hard. |
Cuts back in distance, but steps up in class. XO pattern indicates horse may be sitting on a big race. Probably still not good enough, |
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| 11 | Mine Forest 3/1 |
Race favorite is stuck on the far outside, but with his stalking style and outstanding jock he will probably end up with a good trip. Money won, class, and terrific speed figures make him one of the sports toughest around. When he runs his race not many can beat this old warrior. Certainly not a lock, but no surprise if he has his picture taken when it's all over. Respect big time and the one to beat. |
Boasts the highest earnings of the field, and some impressive speed figures showing in the past performances. Stalker should have enough speed to sit a nice trip just off the front runners. Never got involved in latest race, beaten 17 ½ lengths. Has rebounded from such defeats before, looms as a danger here. |
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The Pick - 2-11-5 |
The Picks: |
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