Restricted Stakes - Purse 250,000 - All Horses, 4 years old and up 6 furlongs Turf Picks & Analysis by: Congie & Flagdown
PP	NAME	CONGIE		FLAGDOWN
1	Rocky Z. Zgreat 11/1	Shows only one win in eight turf starts. Shortens off a series of routes, and this horse should like the shorter distance. Will need to show something more to win here.		Returns to the sprinting game at which he’s best. The problem is, this horse prefers dirt. The last two turf attempts were uninspiring, running in mid pack all the way around the track. Those races were Grade III affairs, and even though this race isn’t graded, there is a lot of quality in this field. Horse is eligible to improve in third start for a sharp trainer, but this one appears to be in deep. Top jockey adds some appeal, he’ll have to gun from the rail in this speed laden affair to avoid being shuffled too far back.
2	Socially Try Gaz2 20/1	Has some back speed in turf sprints. Has not been in good form recently, but this field is softer than what he's been facing. Draws a pretty good field here, so will need his best effort.		This horse’s only three turf wins have come in allowance company, so he’ll have to step up big time to have a shot in this one. Form seems to have tailed off a bit of late, having been beaten a combined 50+ lengths in his last four starts. Best races have come when the horse is on the enginge, but he’ll have company if that’s the strategy here. Would be a surprise.
3	Edison In A Lord Richardrobe 15/1	Has been freshened for quite some time. Comes out of a huge turf sprint winning effort. The layoff is a concern. A possible live longshot, but I'd like to see a race first.		Ran a nice race winning a Grade III event when last seen on the track. Earned a career best speed figure in that one and the amount of time since that last race leads me to think that it may have taken a lot out of the horse. Has the right stalking style for the way this race should set up. A threat with continued improvement, but may be in need of a race.
4	Salty Gal Scnrdoor 22/1	Winless on the turf, but does show two sprint placings on the lawn against some rough customers. I don't know if he can win, but 22/1 might be too pricey.		Chooses a tough spot to break his turf maiden. Switches from dirt to turf, but that move hasn’t worked for him before. Speed figures don’t seem to match up with these, though the horse does seem to like racing in Vermont. Should be close to the pace in the early going, but don’t expect her to be around at the finish.
5	Skillfully Jam Tiramisu 16/1	Enters off a tough race in the GIII Lotus Blossom. Makes third turf start in a row which is a positive. Will need to move forward off that last effort, and that is possible.		Ran a respectable fifth in a Grade III event last out. Closed resolutely in an allowance race two starts back to just miss getting the win. A repeat of those tactics would serve the horse well today. Light in the earnings department, as he’s been most competitive in lower level allowance races. Another that would be a surprise.
6	Mine Craft Siberianex 10/1	Veteran seems to prefer routes. There will be targets to run at in this field, but his recent figures indicate he'll need to crank it up a notch.		Possesses a good in the money percentage on turf, but the lone turf win came while routing. The horse has been keeping stakes company of late without being disgraced. Dirt routes are this horses forte, but this is a grass sprint. Not impossible, but will have to show more if this colt wants to get his picture taken.
7	Cad Speak Moriahspop 10/1	A very interesting 4yo here. Has a good sprint and turf resume. A duplication of his last effort will make him tough. Worth a look for at least your exotics.		One of only four horses in the field with a turf win at six furlongs, for whatever that’s worth. Won a stakes race at the distance last out, getting up in time to win by ¼ length. Speed figures are fairly consistent, and has the right running style for the way I expect this race to be run. The horse has won exactly half of his turf starts, and you don’t do that by accident. Not out of the realm of possibilities.
8	Barely That King Simarticle 14/1	Winless on the turf. That doesn't bode well in this spot. Sprint accomplishments are okay but not spectacular. He'll need his running shoes here.		The second turf maiden in the field. Low percentage jock aboard. Still another horse that will be vying for the lead, but I don’t think this is the race for a horse to break through for his first win on the turf.
9	Phil's Ridge Lhdk2 4/1	Crushed an allowance field at 7F in his last race. Recent sped figures dwarf many in this field. 4/1 seems about right, and a repeat effort of last could get his picture made.		The first horse in the field to have odds of less than 10/1. Horse has been keeping good company, racing in graded events in seven of his last eight starts. Demolished an allowance field in last start by 7+ lengths, which may have laid a nice foundation for this one. Has shown the ability to win from just off the pace, and shows a lot of heart in each race. Legitimate contender.
10	Project Elocat Therion 8/1	Filly tries the boys for second week in a row. Made a HUGE move in graded company to get the place in her last. Works with an extra furlong this week, and she has not missed the board in her last four. 8/1 is a gift as she is a big threat.		Stone closer should be coming from the clouds at the end. May need a bit more ground to be at her best, but given the pace scenario (did I mention that I expect a fast pace?), this horse can’t be tossed. Hasn’t finished worse than second in last four races, earning respectable speed figures in each. Not the most experienced jock aloft, but he’s been winning at a good clip percentage-wise. Ignore at your own risk.
11	Autumn's Wars Flagdown 14/1	Dirt to turf angle is a difficult one in this game. Last speed figure on the dirt would make him a threat here, but turf try two back shows a little less speed. That is a concern. Needs to uncork a big one.		Has one victory (in his turf debut) from three turf starts. Showed stalking ability in the victory, but most of his victories have come when he’s been able to get a clear lead and hold on against the closers. Speed figures are light as best turf figure is mid 90’s. I have a hunch that the trainer will ask the jockey to send, and then hope for the best. If the horse happens to run big, I’ll be happy with a share of the purse money, as I won’t be risking any of my own on him.
12	Aggie Within Empty MMurano 22/1	Has not sprinted in ages. Seems to prefer the two turn distance. Early foot will be needed against these, and that is dificult to muster after routing for awhile. Will have company on the front end in this spot, but could be dangerous if loose.		Mile specialist cuts back in distance for this one. Versatile running style, as he’s won on the lead and from a stalking position. Do the route efforts dull his early speed for the sprint? Speed figures are light compared to others in the field. Still more pace added to the mix.
13	Pro Woody Racelord 7/2	Talk about back class. Nearly 900k in sprint and turf earnings makes him the most accomplished animal in here. Last race might have been a bounce off that monster effort from two back. Outside post is not good, but he gets a decent jock. Very live in this spot.		Once again the favorite in a High Noon race starts from post 13. Berzerk A.P.won from out here in the last High Noon event and Woody will try to duplicate that feat. He certainly has the credentials, as he boasts the highest speed figure showing - a huge 123 run just two races back. Horse has plenty of class, as he’s Grade I placed. Looking for a chink in the armor? Woody seems to be a need the lead type; he hasn’t passed a horse in his last eight starts. He’s going to have plenty of company on the front end, and will have to put away the early speed and still hold off the closers. A legitimate favorite, but not a lock (hmmm...didn’t I say the same thing about Berzerk A.P.?).
14	Thirteen Storm Kartago 12/1	Enters off a win, but against much weaker. Has a decent sprint record and a good jock. Shows several 100+ figures in his PPs, so we can't rule him out. Can't have a letdown against these animals.		Steps up from restricted allowance company. One more who wants to be forwardly placed, but the outside post will cause some loss of ground. Interesting to note that the horse has finished in the top 3 in each of the stakes events listed on the page. Maybe.
		Picks: 10-13-9 The bet: Play #10 across as 8/1 is a gift. Play 10 over the 3-4-7-9-13 and 3-4-7-9-13 over 10 in an exacta. If you want to play bombs away trifectas, use the 10 in all three spots with 3-4-7-9-13 as I think these are the only ones that can hit the board. To cut the betting cost, you can key the 10 and 13 with the others.		The Picks: W -# 10 Project Elocat P - #9 Phil’s Ridge S - #13 Pro Woody The Bet: #10 to win and place, and exacta and trifecta boxes 7/9/10/13.

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