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Restricted Stakes - Purse 250,000 - Fillies & Mares, 4 years old and up 6 furlongs Turf Picks & Analysis by:
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| PP | NAME |  KINGAB |  FLAGDOWN | |
| 1 | HOLLYWOOD STATE 8/1 |
Classy filly that is very hard to ignore because of what she has done in the past. She has never ducked the best of competition, and has over a half-million in earnings to prove it. Lately she has been taking home the minor awards, with quite a few second and thirds on her card. She really wants to go gate-to-wire, as she shows making up no ground in the stretch in any of her races. With so much speed signed on today, that could pose a problem for her. Ultra sharp trainer no doubt has her primed for this, so I am sure she will give a good account of herself. Distance and surface are perfect, and if she should shake loose early, then she has a shot. Not the one I am pointing at, but leave off your trifecta slips at your own risk. |
Ships back to home base after a foray into graded stake’s company overseas. This filly is well rested having apparently been pointed to this race. Speed figures are consistent if not spectacular, but the horse hasn’t been able to close the deal in awhile. Figures to be prominent from the bell and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of front running speed in this race. Legitimate chance to upset the field. |
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| 2 | AROUND THE WORLD 7/1 |
Beautifully bred filly is coming off of a career best speed figure race while winning her first stakes. If she produces that kind of run today, then she can have her picture taken. However, her other 100 plus speed races were followed by extremely low numbered affairs. She has two other concerns that make me leery of her. She has not sprinted in quite some time, and she has only one turf start in her career, and was off the board in that. As talented as she is, it's hard to endorse her with so many question marks. No shocker if she wins, but not my choice today. |
Ran a big speed figure winning her last race against a short field. That race was route race on the dirt, which appears to be this horse's forte. Must make the shift to the turf, where she’s only made one other attempt before. That race resulted in a fourth place finish going 9 furlongs, with a mediocre speed figure of 87. Races in a stalking position in her route races, but may not have the speed to maintain that position in a sprint. Also note the filly’s tendency to bounce after running 100+ speed figures. Top jockey aloft, but there are a few too many “ifs” for this horse for me. |
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| 3 | SPORT WELT 8/1 |
Electrifying speed is what this lady brings to the table. Her game plan is 'pedal to the metal' from the word go, and see how long she can keep the lead. Multiple stakes winner has kept the lead in over a third of her starts. I don't think the grass is her best surface, but she has a pair of wins over the sod. Negatives are that she usually follows high speed figure races with not-so-high figured races, so today puts her in a down cycle. I have never liked dirt to turf and that's what we have here. Lots of speed signed on, but she could be the 'fastest of the fast'. Jock is a cur, but there won't be a lot of race riding with this girl, he just has to turn left once and hang on. Too many negatives for me, but fans of pure speed will want to take a shot at that price. |
The last two times this filly raced in stakes company she was able to find the winner’s circle. However, both of those races came on the dirt against short fields. Should have the speed to get to the front early and go as long as she can. Dangerous if able to run back to her race in week 921, but this is another horse that can’t seem to put back to back races together. Since she’s coming off a win in her last…. |
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| 4 | NIGHTLY OPERATE 26/1 |
Lightly raced filly certainly has her work cut out for her today. Future looks very bright, but this is asking a lot. Last race sprint should serve her well, but she would have to raise her game quite a bit to be effective here. Not sure six-furlongs is going to be her best distance, so I will just tab her and wait till she stretches back out. Price is certainly a magnet, so a small flyer here wouldn't be your worst stab as the race sets up well for her. |
Closed nicely in her most recent attempt – a stakes race in a bulky field. Is familiar with stakes company, but her best efforts have come against low level allowance types. Closing style may suit a route better than a sprint, and her speed figures are cut below the rest of the field. Would be a surprise. |
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| 5 | BABIFIED SHOTGUN 9/2 |
Just what the race needed. More speed! Here is another rocket that I don't think has ever passed a horse in the stretch. Shows some terrific 100-plus speed figures, always followed by a much slower mark in her next start. This is a 'next start' for her. Race scenario really plays against, as there is lots of speed in here to keep her company. A class act, but hard to see her wiring this group with so many negatives. Price doesn't outweigh the problems to me, so I will wait till things are more in her favor. Chance if she gets loose, but not my girl today. |
One of the favorites in the field, in part due to that 113 speed figure back in week 893. That was a long time ago in a dirt sprint, and she hasn’t been able to reproduce that number since. Interesting in that the horse seems to run well in stakes company, but struggled against cheap allowance horses. Still another horse with an X/O pattern (good race followed by a bad race), and if you believe in those patterns (in case you haven’t figured it out, I do), and if everything goes to form, this is another that may not bring her best race today. Should be in the first flight behind Sport Well, and will be difficult to beat if able to break that X/O pattern. |
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| 6 | CHEROKEE MANTA 99/1 |
My momma taught me that if you can't say anything nice about someone, don't say anything at all......... |
Filly tries to break her maiden in stakes company – obviously a tough assignment. Based on her two races run to date, it appears this one would prefer dirt. Flashed speed in her last race, so may be keeping company on the front end. A deserving longshot. |
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| 7 | MORE EARN 11/1 |
Lots of things to like about this hard-trying four-year-old. She wants to win, evident of her ten victories in only 25 starts. She is the race's top money winner with over $715K on her card. The top rider on this circuit takes the reins, and her running style is perfect for the make-up of this race. The price is a magnet and the surface and distance are right up her alley. So why isn't she my pick? I am not sure myself, except that at least one in here looks to be a little faster is all I can think of. Might kick myself later, but not pointing to her. I can't blame anyone however, for jumping on this girl's bandwagon. Big shot at an over-inflated price. |
Ran a very creditable race in Grade III company in last, and her best speed figure came in a turf stakes in week 907. Has a very versatile running style, having won from a stalking position as well as on the front end. Overall speed figures aren’t great but top jock aloft should be able to give this filly every chance to win. |
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| 8 | QUEEN PROSPECTOR 6/1 |
Eighteen times first or second in thirty starts says a lot about the heart in this daughter of Mr. Prospector. Her last six starts show a pattern of lose-win-lose-win etc. and she is coming in off a loss, so it's her turn to shine. Has run fast enough to win this, and jock has rode her before. Her stalk-the-pace style is perfect for this, and the distance and surface are just fine. The price is too good to pass up on a filly with so much going for her, so this is me. Right here. I am pointing to this one, but remember, as always, don't blame me if she loses. Blame the trainer. Total package is a good bet at this price, win or lose. |
Has the highest turf speed figure in the field – a 112 run in week 1012. That race was on yielding turf , but this mare has also won on firm going. A sprinting specialist, she’s been in the exacta in 9 out of 16 races, though she’s been routing more than sprinting lately. Note that the 112 speed figure was run in the only sprint showing on the page. Also note that she’s seemed to have formed a habit of winning every other start. Guess what – she’s due to run a winning race. |
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| 9 | SLEEZY CAT 22/1 |
Only win on this girl's card is a restricted allowance race, so this is a definite step up in class. Not a lot of cash won for so many starts, so it looks like her price is justified. A lot to ask for one with her credentials, so I pass. |
This horse is likely to be prominent early, but has a tendency to fade in the stretch. Comes in light in the earnings department, but attracts the services of a top jockey. A possible longshot to use in the exotics, but shakey on the win end. |
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| 10 | DOCTOR TIRE 34/1 |
Doesn't appear to be the filly she once was, as a look at her record shows a much better runner than her recent running lines do. Has won a lot of races and money, but didn't do it in her present form. No sprint wins ever on her card, so that makes it even tougher on her. Perhaps its time to pick out the sire for her baby. Would be a surprise. |
Throw out this mare’s last race as she didn’t seem to want any part of 14f. Has run decently over this course before, but hasn’t been within four lengths of the winner in her last 8 races. Not likely to end that streak in this affair. |
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| 11 | GREECE DANCE(IRE) 20/1 |
Well-bred filly is not a complete throw out, and the price is very sweet. She has run a 100 plus speed figure over the turf, and has over $212K on her card. Six wins speaks well of her, and she is usually live on the tote board. A couple of things to make you look twice at this girl, but not enough to endorse. She appears to me to be just a cut below the best in here. Bottom of the trifecta would not be a shock, but I can't see a win. |
Closed stoutly in last to win going away. Her best races have come when routing, so she’d probably run better if she had more than the six furlongs she gets today. If the pace is unexpectedly fast, she may be able to pick up some of the pieces late. Another possibility if you’re looking to score in the exotics, but isn’t the likeliest of winners. |
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| 12 | TROPICAL DEPUTY 8/1 |
This girl is a six-time winner, but lately has turned into a classic 'nibbler' who always seems to get a piece of the pie. Money won is a little light compared to some, and her speed figures look the same. She has posted exactly 100 speed numbers several times, but those are just a little light compared to some in here. She is always well bet, but that could be because her outstanding trainer finds her great spots to run. Wouldn't be a shock if she won, but I am reluctantly going to pass while worrying about her all the time. Adds great depth to an already deep field. |
This filly is a consistent sort, having finished in the money in six of her last eight races. Deputy found the competition in her last a bit too tough, as she never really became involved in the race. Loves the sprinting game as she’s been in the money in eight of her ten sprint races. Looks like she’ll appreciate the return to the shorter distance, but may be compromised by the pace scenario and the outside post |
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| 13 | BERZERK A. P. 3/1 |
Morning line favorite is one tough racemare. Eighteen wonderful wins in forty starts is just outstanding. The most consistent 100 plus speed figures and almost a half-million in earnings completes the total package. She is probably the deepest closer in the race, so a speed battle up front will help her quite a bit. The only things keeping me from putting her on top is the terrible post, and the wish that she had another half-furlong to work with. I think the stalkers that will get first run on her will not be stopping in time for her to get up. No surprise if this class act wins, but the post and price push me away. |
This is your race favorite, and why not. Her last five speed figures have been 100+, and she’s won fourteen of her twenty-two sprints. She’s also won four of her last eight races, including two of her last three turf sprints. So what’s not to like? Well, the post position certainly isn’t a bargain, as only six horses have won from that post this year (based on Coker’s speed stats page). Being a deep closer, this A.P. will also need to have a fast pace to close into, and I’m not sure she’ll get that in this race. A deserving favorite, but certainly not a lock. |
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The Pick - 8-13-1 |
The Picks: |
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