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Restricted Stakes - Purse 250,000 - All Horses, 4 years old and up - 6 furlongs Dirt Picks & Analysis by:
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| Kingab 1 - Frosty Abdul - 8/1 - Drew a tough post for this as he will have to gun from the start to avoid being shut off. Not as bad as it could be though, as he wants the front every race anyway. Has never passed a horse in his life, and I don't look for him to change his style today. Would have to be the 'speed-of-the-speed' to win this, and I am just not sure he is. Adds fuel to what should be a hotly contested pace. However, he is a stakes winner, and if he does shake loose early, they could have a tough time running him down. 2 - Basque Strut - 9/1 - Shares the top money winner title of the group with the # 7 horse, and won his in fewer starts. He also shares the top speed-mark of 113 with the # 5 horse. The race sets up very well for him, as he is a stone closer and will benefit from the expected pace battle up front. Would like him better with another half-furlong to work with, but he still is a very dangerous horse in here. Big chance if he fires his best shot. 3 - Barely That King - 13/1 - This dude gives me the impression that he is in just a little too deep here. His speed-marks are a little on the slow side compared to some, and his money won is a little on the light side. What really looks bad for him though is that he is a confirmed front runner in a race loaded with speed. I just can't see him out-gunning some others in here for the lead. Pace scenario really plays against and so will I. 4 - Smokey Project - 9/2 - At that price he is the race favorite, showing what a tough race this really is. Won three in a row at today's distance before stumbling in the stretch-out in his last start, if running third at 15/1 in a 14 horse field can be called stumbling. Looks like he will get a perfect stalking trip, sitting just behind the leaders, and will also get first run on the deep closers. Good jock signed on to help him time his run, and will be part of the action down the stretch. I can't fault anyone who is taking a favorable view of his chances. No surprise if he gets his picture taken. 5 - Speech Dan - 8/1 - Except for the one speed-mark of 113, his numbers don't quite match up consistently with the best in here. He doesn't keep quite as good of company as some of the others either, which is reflected in his money won. Is a versatile sort however, and doesn't appear to have to have the lead, so he should get a good trip. Not my top pick, but excellent rider on this circuit takes the reins, and if he should happen to freak again and run a monster speed figure like he has before......well, you get the idea. Can't completely eliminate with confidence. 6 - Grim Dancer - 10/1 - There are a number of things to like about this guy, especially the overlaid price of 10/1. He likes to win, and has eight of them to prove it. He can fire a speed number high enough to pull this off too. Good rider takes the call, and his stalking style should play quite well here. This is his third start back after an extended rest, and it should see him fire a good shot. Big chance at a big price. 7 - One Cigar - 5/1 - Veteran runner has been to a lot of battles, and still likes to hear his feet rattle. I am not sure how this track plays to speed, as I just don't run here enough to know. However, if it is kind to front runners, then this one has a big chance. In a race loaded with speed, this bullet could be the 'fastest of the fast', shake loose and be gone. Price and jock are not magnets, but impossible to ignore. Top money winner and consistent big speed figures make him a danger, especially if he clears the other rockets in here. If McClendon were up he would be my pick, but he ain't, so he's not. 8 - Act Bart - 12/1 - Versatile running style should help this guy run as best he can, just not sure if his best will be good enough. Compared to others in here his money won and speed-figures are not up to snuff. Add to the mix a poor rider, and I think I will pass. Can't bet them all, and this is one that I will leave off my ticket. Course I have been wrong before. 9 - Holy Storm (GB) - 10/1 - Hard to fault those last four efforts, but two of them were in restricted races, while the other two were small allowance priced heats. Ten wins and almost $300K in winnings proves he is all racehorse, and he appears to be as good now as he has ever been. Hard trying sort who gives his all every time is hard not to like, but I think he is just a cut below the best in here. Think bottom of the trifecta is his best finish, but no great shock if he does better. Adds depth to an already deep field. 10 - Admiral H. - 17/1 - No wins on his recent past performance's and low speed figures to boot. All of this makes him hard to endorse today. Not quite as fast as some in here, and low-profile rider makes him an outsider. Not for me. 11 - Pete's Golfball - 10/1 - Another one that makes this race a handicapping nightmare. On one hand his money won per start is sad, but his speed-figures match up quite well with any in here. Deep closing style make him hard to like, but very good jock does instill some confidence. Price is very attractive and you could do worse than take a flyer on this one. If you bet him, you don't need to watch the race until the announcer says they are nearing the finish. If he wins, it will be in the last few jumps. Not my top pick, but not a throw-out either. 12 - St. Cooter - 14/1 - Stakes winner takes a sharp drop in class at a very inflated price. One of the best trainers in the sport sends this one into battle with a very good rider up, and a running style that should fit very well with this group. Money won is a little light compared to most, but has fired a couple of speed-marks that are good enough to take this. Has been keeping very good company, and should find these much softer. Ignore this one and leave off your tickets at your own risk. Chance at a great price. 13 - Near Between North - 16/1 - Restricted allowance races the only in-the-money finishes on this ones card. Appears to me that he is in a little too deep to make an impact. Terrible post no bargain either. Best chance would seem to be if the track comes up off. Would be a surprise and I think I will pass.
The Pick - 4-12-7 |
Flagdown #1 Frosty Abdul (8/1) – Scored a nice win against a short field in race 893, but has steadily regressed since that race. May have needed the last race after the lengthy layoff. Abdul doesn’t pass many horses, and appears to be a “need the lead” type – may prove difficult in this spot. Will appreciate the drop from graded competition, and may be ready to fire his best shot. #2 Basque Strut (9/1) – Shows stalking ability that could come in handy with this group. Fired a nice 113 speed figure in a 6 ½ f race two back, but speed figure regressed with the turn back to 6f in latest. Expect a nice run from this colt, but suspect he may want a bit more ground to show his best.
#3 Barely That King (13/1) – Should be acclimated to his surroundings, as he’s been in Vt. since week 963. Hasn’t been able to beat track-restricted company in most recent outings, and now takes a step up in class. This is another horse who should be battling on the front end for as long as he goes.
#4 Smokey Project (9/2) – Has shown an affinity for the Vermont strip, with his two most recent wins coming at this track. Has some of the most consistent speed figures of the group, and possesses nice tactical speed which should help him to get first run on the leaders. Jockey familiar with the horse, as he’s been aboard for most recent victories.
#5 Speech Dan (8/1) - is trained by yours truly (in the interest of full disclosure). Beaten only ½ length by #4 in Vt. race in week 991, tiring late to finish third. Bit concerned about his most recent effort as it was the first time in his career that he’s finished worse than 5th, and he’s found stakes water a bit too deep. The horse is all heart, and I expect another game effort.
#6 Grim Dancer (10/1) – stretches back out after last pair. A versatile running style and high percentage jockey are in his favor, but I get the feeling the horse may be tailing off a bit.
#7 One Cigar (5/1) – hasn’t put together back to back 100+ speed figures in quite some time, and that’s what he’ll need to do to have a shot at winning this. Always close at the finish, I think this horse will be part of the pace, but I have a feeling he won’t have enough left in the tank to make it to the winner’s circle. Low percentage jock further dampens the appeal.
#8 Act Bart (12/1) – steps up in class after failing to win at the lower allowance levels since week 844. Only two 100+ speed figures show in the past performances. Appears to be in deep.
#9 Holy Storm (GB) (10/1) – had a nice score against a short field in latest. Horse will try to get first run from a stalking position. Note that the horse’s regular Vt. pilot (McClendon) opts to ride Speech Dan (yeah, I know – there’s no real opting by the jockeys in the sim. Still, I’d like to think the jock made the decision). Not impossible, but prefer others.
#10 Admiral H (17/1) – threw in a clunker in recent NC prep. The last time this horse ran on a fast track at the distance of 6f, he surprised the odds makers by finishing a non – threatening second. Seems to have developed a case of seconditis in his races, and I think the trainer would be more than happy if that were the result in this race.
#11 Pete’s Golfball (10/1) – has closing ability that could come in handy in this race. Horse ran well two races back, but otherwise has been struggling against lesser. Jockey will hope for a fast pace up front, and will have to time his move just right to hit the board.
#12 St. Cooter (14/1) – has been facing stakes company of late, making him one of the few horses in here not stepping up in class. Horse hasn’t fired in his last two races, but trainer pulled a shocker in the first leg of the High Noon series, and may have something up his sleeve with this horse, too. Speed figures aren’t dazzling, but may be able to get the job done on class alone.
#13 Near Between North (16/1) – may appreciate the turnback in distance, but would need a repeat of his effort in week 970 to get the job done today.
The Picks:
W -# 4 Smokey Project
The Bet: |
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