PP1
29/1
CLEVELAND STAR (SOVIET STAR x SECRETARIAT x WILL HAYS)
G. Adler (19 - 0 - 3 - 4 - 0%)
NEXIS - Desperado
This experienced and competent trainer ended up with a jockey who cannot find the wire. Cleveland Star holds
the North Carolina track record for 16 furlongs on the turf but this is a field of multiple track record holders. If he runs to form he
will likely tuck in behind the front group and try to make his move when the backfield kicks in.
PP2
7/1
JED'S GROUND (RON RIVERS x COMMON GROUNDS(GB) x IN REALITY)
R. Dillungham (10 - 0 - 4 - 0%)
NEBRASKA - Woodsmen
This horse is trained by one of the most accomplished and daring trainers in the SIM. He drew a dud for a jockey, and in this field
everything counts. Jed's Ground holds 16 furlong turf track records at the Japan and New Jersey tracks. Looks like he likes long races on either
surface but may be heading for a dirt career. His form says he sits at the back of the pack and takes it easy for a mile or more, then kicks in and picks off the field
one at a time. This may not be the field to let go, he may not catch them. At 7/1 could be worth a look though.
PP3
9/1
ENOUGH NOT DENNY (NICE DANCER x ELA-MANA-MOU(IRE) x NEARCTIC)
T Brewer ( 63 - 12 - 7 - 17 - 19% )
IRELAND - Spudeater
Enough Not Denny holds the 12 furlong dirt record in Denmark. He is trained by a very experienced trainer and drew a very solid jockey.
He is another horse that will be sitting at the back of the pack looking for an opportunity to make his move. Heavy traffic, the surface,
and my guess that he would prefer 2 to 4 furlongs shorter lead me to pass on him this time.
PP4
6/1
DIALING EN LA SOB (CAERLEON x SAN FELIOU(FR) x TELL)
B Hollier ( 40 - 6 - 2 - 0 - 15% )
Team Independent UNity - Pullaway
The 14 furlong turf track record holder at Longchamp. This lightly raced 8 year old is bred for distance and has run to his breeding with 3 wins and 3 seconds out of 6 turf routes.
He drew a respectable jockey and should be able to see the field at the break. He ran out of steam in the last quarter at his only attempt at 16 furlongs and should have learned to stay out of speed duels in marathons.
If he lays off the early speed he has a legitimate shot. If not, the closers will eat him up coming home. Respect, in any event.
PP5
13/1
ADMIRAL ERNIE (WITH APPROVAL x IN THE WINGS(GB) x LYPHEOR(GB))
V Ching ( 10 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 20% )
MINNESOTA - newmerv
A grand campaigner nearing the end of an honest career. His last three efforts have all been with Graded company and he just did not fire. It looks like
he will give another honest effort; and come up short again.
PP6
99/1
DENNY'S AGGIE(IRE) (ELA-MANA-MOU(IRE) x AVATAR x NOBLE TABLE)
D Lakencher ( 3 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 33% )
QUEENSLAND - Moneybags
Who knows? Looks like he was claimed for a gender change and subsequent breeding. He has loads of distance in his bloodline.
He would have to run the race of his lifetime to compete with this group.
PP7
22/1
GALA BOOMER(IRE) (THEATRICAL(IRE) x FORTUNATE PROSPECT x RIVERMAN)
H Harbert ( 23 - 2 - 4 - 2 - 9% )
Terrapin Jockey Club - Festivmood
Nicely bred 4 year old may find the distance, and the older horses, too much to handle.
Front running style does not help, but he may help set up a new track or even world record time.
PP8
22/1
TIME SETH (RAGTIME BAND x SOY NUMERO UNO x VICTORIA PARK)
P Kelly ( 15 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 7% )
MISSOURI - Erniea
Very consistent sprinter came out of the claiming ranks and makes a good living in the low allowance and Starter Allowance races.
May find the pace, and the distance, too much this time out.
PP9
9/2
INDIVIDUAL KNEE (NUREYEV x RAISE A NATIVE x NOHOLME II)
Q Dumas ( 9 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 11% )
VIKING RACING - Marre
This trainer started playing the game around the same time I did - and he claimed the very first horse I ran in a Maiden Claimer.
Individual KNee is a son of Nureyev and loves the Nordic tracks - holding track records in Denmark (12 turf) and Finland (10 turf).
It looks like he loves to run just off the pace; but this race is setting up for a late charger. Not to be ignored, but it may not be his type of race.
PP10
12/1
PHARNECK (SKIP TRIAL x LYPHARD x THE MINSTREL)
C Shinkle ( 67 - 10 - 10 - 12 - 15% )
VERMONT - Dixiedotco
One of the best trainers in the SIM (Eclipse nominee) brings a very tough horse to Hong Kong. Pharneck holds five turf track records
(Hong Kong - 14; Ostend - 13; South Dakota - 13; Taiwan - 12; and Vermont - 16). He has won 4 of his last 5 and the last three in a row. 12/1 odds would normally be
an early Christmas gift, but this is a very tough field. Throw out at your peril. He should finish in the top three, and I think he is going to take it all.
PP11
12/1
ROYALTY CECIL(IRE) (ELA-MANA-MOU(IRE) x NATIVE ROYALTY x PRINCE JOHN)
J Wesselman ( 40 - 8 - 5 - 5 - 20% )
EAST-WEST CONNECTION - Simond3
Another tough El Mana Mou(IRE) horse who loves the distance. He holds the track record at 16 furlongs at the tough Virgina track.
Trainer looks like he shortens him up after a marathon and then stretches him back out to 2 miles. He sits about 6 to 10 off the lead and then makes his move at the head of the stretch. Slow pace sets it up for him - fast pace burns him out.
PP12
4/1
OUR WARS (DIXIELAND BAND x LORD AT WAR(ARG) x CAERLEON)
G Arnold ( 69 - 9 - 7 - 11 - 13% )
ASR - Lygerbomb
Holder of 5 track records and the world record at the distance. Fearsome competitor. Front speed, front speed, front speed.
He will take the front and run for the gold. There may be some horses that can run with his front speed, something he is not used to seeing.
If a rabbit goes with him the table gets set for a charger.
PP13
17/1
JEALOUS ROMEO (AFFIRMED x SADLER'S WELLS x INHERENT STAR)
Q Cassell ( 71 - 14 - 11 - 13 - 20% )
SERA - Legacy
Newmarket track record holder at 9.5. He has been running shorter races against allowance company. He can run from the front, from off the pace, or from way in the back. Hard one to figure out, but wherever he runs he will face tough speed.
PP14
8/1
SAPPHIRE DEELITE (GRENFALL x BE MY GUEST x GREEN DANCER)
NWRC - 7seas13
M Day ( 73 - 19 - 16 - 7 - 26% )
Track records at BC (14 turf) and Wyoming (16 turf) shows he will not be a pushover. Tough jockey knows how to win. Last race is a concern as he showed no heart at all.
Analysis: Looks like lots of front speed. I see the 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13 breaking for the front; the 8 and 10 tucking in behind that group; and the 3, 5, 14, 11, and 2 dropping off the pace.
At the half the 12, the 9, and the 4 start breaking away with the 10 keeping the front group in sight. The 14 starts making a move and the rest starting to lose sight of the front.
At the head of the stretch the 4, 10, 12, and 9 are bunched and driving hard. The 14 has made a huge move on the outside and is closing fast. The 11 has made an equally big move on the inside rail.
Coming across the wire it is 10 (PHARNECK) nosing out 12 (OUR WARS) with 4 (DIALING EN LA SOB ) another quarter back. The 14, 11, and 9 can be covered with a blanket another half back. A most unusual finish for a martahon race.
Bet: 1000 win place on 12; a 1000 win place on 10. Do a 100 exacta box 4-10-12. Do a $500 tri 10-12 to 10-12 to 9-11-14. Go for some real money by betting a 100 tri 10-12 to 10-12 to all.
