Eye Plus Plus – Well, here’s a colt I know a little something about. Bred and trained by yours truly, this four-year-old son of Kingmambo out of a Falstaff mare makes his first Grade I start on Saturday. Although he was bred with turf in mind, at ages two and three, he was doing well on enough on dirt that he made only two appearances on grass through twenty-one starts. As a juvenile, his running style and pedigree had everyone believing that he’d improve going longer, but in actuality, it became apparent that he was not only a closing sprinter, but one who seemed to run better as the distance got shorter and shorter. Out of conditions and struggling to win against stakes rivals on dirt, the decision was made to put him on the lawn. After using a pair of dirt starts to leg up off the layoff, he was a game second in the Grade III Movieland Turf Cup behind next out winner of the Grade I Japan Cup, Queen Amy. The graded stakes committee omitted Eye Plus Plus from the list of nominees for the Japan Cup, so he was freshened and returned with an easy victory in allowance company. With an outside post in his next start, the Grade II Everclear ‘Cap, he was used a bit too much early but still fought gamely to be a rallying fourth in what was termed ‘a prep’. He’s ready.
Brown Voss – Yes, he’s lightly raced. No, he’s never faced graded stakes rivals. Yes, he’s been primarily a router in his brief career. No, he’s never sprinted over anything other than an off track. Yes, he did win his first four career starts, including two against older rivals at age three and one in stakes company, all in dominant gate to wire fashion. No, he never felt the kind of early speed that he’ll encounter on Saturday. But then, yes, in his two sprint outings against weaker, he was able to sit behind the pace and pass rivals in the final quarter mile. But, then again, no, his speed figures just don’t quite seem high enough to knock off the best horses in this race. Well, yes, he does still have room to improve and he does go out for a barn winning with better than fifteen percent of its starters. And finally, yes, he is an attractive entrant at 22-1.
Lepaca Drakon – The great Sabbath sends out his outstanding, consistent son of Kingmambo, a winner of seventeen from thirty-three and over a half million dollars. An extremely versatile colt both in running style and distance aptitude, he has employed a number of tactics to win races ranging from six to eight furlongs on both surfaces. Like Eye Plus Plus, he ran exclusively on dirt to begin his career, hitting the board in ten of his first eleven starts before his first ‘drubbing’ in a Grade III start at a mile and a sixteenth. Two subsequent duds on dirt prompted the barn to return him to sprints, and shortly thereafter, he made the move to grass. He went on to hit the board in fifteen of his next sixteen starts, including eleven victories. I suppose you could make the case that this is as tough a group as he’s faced, but still, he’s 9-1 and leads the field in consistency. He has a ton of class and the kind of running style, which coupled with a world class jock like Quasimodo Cassell, could make all the difference in the world.
Secret Shot – Top ten ranked older horse enters as the deserved favorite with a stellar record of eleven wins, four seconds, and a third place finish from eighteen starts (19-11-4-1) with nearly one and a quarter million dollars earned. A deep, deep closer, the son of Seeking The Gold out of a Secretariat mare is winless in his last three, but he had won ten of thirteen before that after three dirt start to begin his career. The winner of the Grade II After Shave Sprint, the Grade I Never Ready Sprint, and the Grade II SnowPhantom Appreciation and second place finisher in the Grade I Because I Said So and the Grade II Everclear Handicap, the colt towers over the field in the class department. With victories over the best in this field and a quality jock, only his come from behind style figures to cause him trouble.
Zinc Biagi – Another stout closer, this lightly raced five-year-old son of Digression was a debut winner who went on to finish third in his first start against winners at 112-1. He tried to stretch to a mile for that occasion, but turned back to a sprint for his next and exited his first allowance condition easily. Stepping up into stakes company, he was well beaten at the same six and a half furlong distance, but went on to exit two allowance conditions impressively, each at the flat mile distance. Those fine performances prompted a return to stakes company, but again he cut back to a sprint, and again he finished off the board, but ran well through the stretch. This is a huge step up for him and he hasn’t yet proven himself in listed stakes events, but with a torrid pace in front of him, he may inherit a check with his late fire.
Furiously Gleam – Seven-year-old Furiously Gleam, a son of Law Society, own one victory from seven career starts, a win in maiden claiming company. Beaten soundly in three maiden special events to begin his career, he won in gate to wire fashion while running for a tag, but the final time was rather slow. In three subsequent allowance starts, he has gone off at odds of 188-1, 88-1, and 216-1, respectively, finishing eighth, seventh, and seventh, respectively. He’s 99-1 here, and well, he’s overmatched. But, he has good speed and for that reason, in some capacity, he will affect the outcome of this race.
Perfect Allen – He’s earned nearly three-quarters of a million dollars, has hit the board in half of his career starts, and enters off of a commanding victory. But, prior to that start, he had hit the board in just one of his prior ten starts, a victory in the listed Questionmaster Handicap over a soggy turf course. A five-year-old son of Storm Cat, Perfect Allen has done all of his best work over the turf, although he has spent a quarter of his career on dirt. While he has ability and a versatile running style, occasionally stepping up to post a daunting speed figure, he has had difficulty facing top competition. In his last nine graded stakes appearances, going back almost two years, he has hit the board only three times, with a win and a pair of seconds. The veteran barn knows how to win, doing so at a fifteen percent clip over an impressive span of four hundred and twenty-seven starts, so it’s difficult not to take heed.
Buda In The Villa – Although he come up flat in the Everclear ‘Cap, this is yet another closer that needs to be seriously considered. A son of Danehill out of a Pancho Villa mare, he has earned well over a half million dollars while winning ten starts, including two consecutive victories prior to the Everlcear. Late in his three-year-old season, he was soundly thumped by Secret Shot in the SnowPhantom Appreciation, but then put together five fine starts on the class drop. Aside from his two wins, he was second, third, and fourth in three other starts, prompting the start in the Everclear. While his record seems to spell out a series of disappointments against top rivals, he has posted the requisite speed figures to be considered a threat on more than one occasion. The barn wins with over twenty percent of its starters and finishes in the top three about half of the time. Be cautious, but don’t simply discredit his chances in light of his last two graded stakes appearances.
Ghost Prospector – Like the aforementioned Buda In The Villa, this four-year-old son of Silver Ghost is easy to look at haphazardly and discard impulsively because of recent thumpings in graded stakes appearances. Late in 2001, he attempted to navigate a mile in the Grade I Mospe Cup and was soundly beaten at a short price. Toss that one. He’s yet to win a race going two turns, and this eleven time winner has tried it seven times now. As if that was enough of an excuse, that race was brutal. With a star-studded cast of three-year-olds like Tigermania, Commander Jericho, Dirty Mat, September Storm, Biagi’s Wranglers, and Abstract Class, he has every right to have that ‘mark’ expunged from his record. In the Grade I Japan Sprint, he broke from the twelve hole in a field of fourteen and dueled through unrealistic fractions while very wide. Of the six in that field that sparred up front, none finished in the top three, only one finished in the top six, and four wilted to be among the last half dozen finishers. Last time, in the Everclear, it was virtually the same scenario. He broke from the thirteen hole, dueled through insensible fractions and helped set the race up for a barrage of closers. I’m not saying he won’t tire again if the same thing happens, but I am warning against gauging his ability based upon those three excusable results.
Red Bill – Well, he picked a nice time to put up a big show, but what does one make of it? A four-year-old son of Red Ransom out of a Danzig mare, Red Bill has spent the bulk of his career as a useful, but unheralded allowance caliber turf sprinter. He has pretty good early speed, and since returning from an early winter injury, he has been flauting it more impressively. Perhaps the time off was beneficial, or perhaps he has matured, but he has run rather well in each of four starts since the return including a rare appearance in a two-turn outing. After that route effort he turned back to a sprint stakes and tired after showing good speed, finishing ninth. He dropped into an allowance event and stretched mildly to seven furlongs where, at 10-1, he opened up a clear early lead and fought gamely to the line. He didn’t win, but he put up a speed figure of 114 while running second. Food for though, indeed.
X. News – Honestly, he seems like he’s in a bit deep, but high marks to the colt claimed four back for consistently showing speed and running his guts out. He won five back, and has picked up checks in four starts since, albeit minor ones for the most part. But now, the less-than-positive perspective. He has run twenty-seven times and has been on turf just twice, failing to register a victory. He has run twenty-seven times and is still eligible for his first allowance condition. Frankly, it’s tough to figure he’ll make much of a splash in this spot. But, look at it like this – the barn picked up a rock solid claimer who tries his heart out every time, almost always picking up a check and running about as fast as he did in every other start. As an added bonus, the barn has parlayed the claim into the coveted honor of being an Equinics starter. I’d say in quite a few cases, simply getting to the gate is a very real and respectable accomplishment.
Jupiter’s Streams – Trained by a frequent visitor to the friendly rival Nexis operation, we encounter yet another reformed claimer, with this guy possessing a more thorough resume. A five-year-old by Unbridled, since he was claimed for $100,000 a dozen starts back, he has faced stakes foes eight times, including a Grade II and a Grade III start. He didn’t win the race for a tag, and he hasn’t won since. In fact, he hasn’t won since capturing an allowance race at a mile on dirt over a year ago. This from a veteran with six ‘non-m/c/o/s’ wins and nearly $300,000 in career winnings. He has class, but lacks a crucial turf win. Before you get presumptuous, check out a fairly recent third in the Grade II Winthrope Stakes, a turf sprint, at 20-1. More recently, he posted a speed figure of 107 at 16-1 while running a solid second in a restricted turf sprint.
Fantastic Woody – Longshot by Fast Play lives up to her sire’s namesake with good early foot, perhaps best implemented going another furlong or so. His career sprint record stands at one for twelve, while his three for twenty-one route record is an improvement, but not emphatically better. The six-year-old has been running primarily against restricted allowance rivals with mild success, but his speed figures vary quite a bit. His three best recent finishes have resulted in figures of 70, 99, and 94, respectively. He earned the 70 in a sprint on dirt and the 99 on turf in a route. It’s pretty tough to make a plausible case for him, but if you’re going to try, you’ll probably have to look deeply between those particular lines.
Pro Saint – By the legendary Mr. Prospector, this five-year-old has won seven of seventeen career starts, all in sprints, accruing over three-quarters of a million dollars. With impressive tactical speed, he was a solid victor of the Grade III Blessingindisguise Stakes, followed by a solid third in the Grade I A.S.R Sprint. He tried a mile next time and finished third, but wasn’t as impressive as he had been in sprints. He cut back subsequently, and failed to fire, prompting a layoff. He came off the bench to take the El Tigre Grande ‘Cap, followed by a troubled third in the Mr. Bolg ‘Cap. He earned speed figures of 111 and 112, respectively, warranting a start in the Grade I Because I Said So Stakes. With a strong, tactical ride, he went on to capture the race at 5-1 over Saturday’s favorite, Secret Shot. A month later, something was amiss when he finished eleventh of fourteen and well behind Secret Shot in the Grade I Japan Sprint. He’s entering with a few question marks, but ample merit and plenty of action on the tote board at 5-1.
Hero Returning – Deep, deep closer by Sea Hero has made twelve route appearances and only eight sprint starts, but has won four of those going short, with a second and a third as well. But unfortunately, he has been on turf just once, failing to hit the board. Late in his three-year-old season, the four-year-old turned back for a rare sprint outing in the seven furlong StarHandicapping Dash and was a rallying third. The speed figure earned was a nice improvement over recent route efforts, but the barn gave him an extra furlong to use for the late rally next time. He regressed, and when he shortened up again next time, he didn’t show much more. Undeterred, he remained in a sprint for his next start and upset the allowance field with an impressive late rally and an unusually strong speed figure. He backed it up with a validation in his next, coming from last to win another sprint against tougher rivals with an even better speed figure. He made up eight lengths in a furlong, and was moved up to stakes company while stretching out to a route again as a result. At 5-1, he showed nothing, prompting skeptical bettors to dismiss him at 22-1 in the one mile Tarleton Oak Stakes. He stalked the pace and surged to the lead at the sixteenth pole, winning by a length with a solid speed figure of 109. He’s tough to gauge and certainly doesn’t fall under the heading of ‘logical’, but he has a chance. My big question falls under the heading of ‘what the heck will he do on turf?’
What’s Gonna’ Happen: I’m not too sure, but I do know that one horse jumps right out and off the page at you. Secret Shot has beaten most of the best horses in here, and the lone runner that bested him on one occasion had his head handed to him by Secret Shot the very next race when the two met up again. He is not only good enough to win at this level, proven at this level, proven at the distance, but far and away the most consistent performer in the group. He is meticulously managed and well prepared for each and every start. Ordinarily, this is the horse that I go out of my way to beat, but ordinarily, this horse is 8-5.
Here, he is amazingly 7-2 and at that price, worth using as a flat wager or the key on top of a big exotic wager. Whereas runners like Eye Plus Plus and Pro Saint seem like the kind of horse that could upset at a square price, this horse looks blatantly obvious at an only slightly less square price. Eye Plus Plus is doing great and I expect a huge effort from him, while Pro Saint has beaten the favorite and has a ton of back class. These two would likely comprise the second ‘tier’ of horses in a triple wheel with ‘ALL’ underneath, but if you played it as such, you’d be advised to hedge with an exacta keying not only these two under the favorite, but several others.
Lepaca Drakon is a huge value at 9-1, winning better than half of his career starts and trained by a legend with 150 career wins for roughly a twenty-five percent career win rate and over half of his career starters finishing in the top three. Perfect Allen seems unlikely in the top spot, but he has a right to get a piece. Ditto for Buda In The Villa, who enters off of a dud, but looked awfully good in two prior. Ghost Prospector has the capacity to stalk and grab a check, he needs only step up at this level. A case could be made for a trifecta with the favorite over Eye Plus Plus, Pro Saint, Lepaca Drakon, Perfect Allen, Buda In The Villa, and Ghost Prospector. But, you’d be omitting quite a few long priced, yet talented runners from the third spot by not pressing ‘ALL’. Of course, by using only two under the favorite, you’re minimizing your chances just as substantially, but I think there may actually be less risk in that approach. Of course, you need to back it up with the aforementioned ‘hedge’ exacta.
Or you can just make it real easy and refrain from wagering, content to watch an excellent race.
