The Black Gold Keles brings together some of the sims best older horses going the classic 10 furlong distance. The field includes a mix of some seasoned veterans as well as some lightly raced horses.
Before getting into the analysis of the field, a special thanks to Lady’s Secret and ManO for putting in the time and effort it took to coordinate the Equinics, and to all of the race sponsors for helping to make it all happen. You deserve a hearty round of applause
Analysis of the Field:
#1- Crevis En La Burgs (Ire) (Team Ireland, trained by irisherno1) 37/1 – Switches back to dirt after a couple of tries on the lawn. Only career victory came over off going, so expect the Irish contingent to be doing a rain dance for this one. Lightly raced colt still has room to improve, but looks to be in tough in this spot. He doesn’t seem to have the speed to carry the field, and it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to out kick some of the bigger guns in here.
#2- Opal Slew (Team South East Racing Association, trained by stickman) 15/1 – Million dollar earner seems to have tailed off a bit of late. Ran a creditable third two races back at today’s distance, but I think that 10f may be stretching his distance limitations. Certainly has the back class and speed figures to win this, but he’ll have to turn his game around in a hurry.
#3 Unbridled Pockets (Team DelPenn, trained by miraloma) 15/1 – Seems to be getting good at the right time. Never got involved in his last race, and seems to race his best when one the front end. He’s a winner at the distance, but the fields were short and the final times were uninspiring. Needs to take another step forward to have a chance in here.
#4 Mine Capes (Team Nebraska, trained by greeny) 35/1– Win percentage is impressive, but a look at the money earned indicates that he’s been facing lesser. Winner at the distance, but the time was unimpressive. Likely to settle mid-pack and hope for the best. Nebraska contingent likely to join the Irish in their rain dance. An outsider despite the fine win record.
#5 Many For Frank (Team New South Wales, trained by shagsnags)13/1 – Has come to hand nicely since turning five years old. Won back to back stakes races in race horse time at the turn of the year, before faltering in his last few attempts. Were those stakes wins the exception, or is the horse getting better. Previous forays into graded stakes waters have been less than encouraging, but he is proven at the distance and seems to be able to adapt to any pace.
#6 Person Roger (Team Nexis, trained by bird ) 7/1 – It looks like this horse’s best distance is 9f as his races beyond that distance have been generally unimpressive. Likely to be placed in mid pack during the race, and try to sustain his rally as far as he can go. More places than wins on the resume, so you may want to consider him underneath if you think he can get the distance. Price seems short to me.
#7 Your Boundaries (Team Viking Racing, trained by sos) 9/2– Proven at the distance, and threw a gaudy 120+ speed figure back in week 1124. If you’re willing to toss the 16f marathon, this guy has brought home part of the purse in 16 straight races. Tractable sort should be able to adapt to any race condition. I’m not sure I like having such an inexperienced jock in the irons, but still looks like one of the ones to fear.
#8 Roger Sword(IRE) (Team Germany, trained by bobilo) 24/1– Should bring some speed to the event, but his overall speed figures don’t match up well here. Seems to be a decent allowance horse, but he’s struggled against stakes company in the past. He’s won at this distance before, but the time was unimpressive. Best chance at an upset would be appear to be if he’s able to get brave on a lonely lead.
# 9 Buddy Eagle (Team Minnesota, trained by fairmontst) 59/1– Lightly raced six year broke his maiden in a stakes race, but hasn’t been able to get his picture taken since. Buddy earned a reasonable speed figure going 14f, so the distance shouldn’t pose a problem. However, each of his route races came against short fields, and he wasn’t facing the caliber of the crew he faces today. Possesses a decent gate speed, and looks to race prominently early on.
#10 Pan Jay (Team Queensland, trained by sabalou) 5/1– Hard knocking sort hasn’t been able to get his picture taken against graded company, but just missed getting to the winner’s circle in a Grade I event at 10f a few races back. Has shown closing ability while chasing short fields in most recent victories. You don’t win $1.5M by accident, and he’s been well rested for this one. Threat.
#11 Drago Gulley (Team North West Racing Circuit, trained by ebbe) 22/1 – Lightly races 7yo has done little wrong to date. He’s shown the ability to win from off the pace and on the lead. Never been beyond 8 ½ furlongs, so the distance may be a question mark. Hasn’t gotten much respect at the betting windows, but fortunately it doesn’t look like the horse knows how to read the tote. He’s not 97/1 today, but still offers great value at 22/1. Eligible to pull the surprise if able to continue his progression.
#12 West of the Book (Team Vermont, trained by socalman) 16/1– Past Grade I winner at the distance, earning a triple digit speed figure in the process. West seems to like the Vermont course as he cruised to a win in the Vermont eliminations, and previously ran a career best speed figure of 115+ winning here at 9.5 f. He hasn’t hit the 100 speed figure mark in his last few races, so he’ll have to step it up a bit here to come home with the gold. Deep closer will be hoping for a fast pace up front and clear sailing in the lane.
#13 Fargo Partner (Team East-West Connection, trained by fixby) 7/1– Racked up a hat trick of wins while facing short fields a few weeks back, but his last three races have been uninspiring. Speed figure took a bit of a dip in his last start, but he’s shown the ability to bounce back quickly. However, he’s untested at 10f, and I’m not sure I want to take a flyer on horse trying to do something he’s never done before.
#14 A’arab Zaraq (Team Independent Unity, trained by chop) 28/1– The name of his game is speed. Likely to try and clear the field and open up a long, lonely lead, but could end up dueling with Roger Sword through some ding song splits. Should give backers a thrill at least for a little while.
#15 Worldy Plus Moe (Team A.S.R., trained by xanderman) 4/1- Been on a tear of late, winning 4 of his last 5 starts. Moe cruised in his tune up for this event, winning a Grade II event and earning a career best speed figure in the process. Likely to settle mid-pack and make his run on the far turn. Obviously talented, but the odds seem a bit short given the outside post and the possibility that he’ll regress off that big figure.
#16 T. Bro (Team Terrapin Jockey Club, trained by earthsong) 74/1 – Comes in light in terms of speed figures and earnings. Tends to wade near the back of the pack and pick off the tired ones in the stretch. Hard to endorse in this spot.
There are lots of different angles to take into consideration in this one. I’ll go with the horse who’s been running consistent figures, is a proven winner at the distance, and who has a jock aboard who knows his way around the Vermont course. Let’s play $60 win and place on #10 (cost $120), and take a shot with $5 exactas 10 and 11 with 7, 10, 11, and 12 (cost $30), $2 trifecta box 7, 10, 11, 12 (cost $48). Total all bets $198.
