In this race, we honor Winning Colors, the last filly to win the Kentucky Derby. In that victory, she was the recipient of a textbook front-running ride by Gary Stevens. In a thrilling stretch run, she just held off the closing surge of Forty Niner. While Winning Colors failed to distinguish herself after that '88 Derby Victory, she will be forever linked to the Breeders' Cup Distaff of the same year. In one of the most memorable races in Breeders' Cup history, she went down to a nose defeat at the hands of Personal Ensign, one of the greatest racemares of all time who in her last start ensured herself of retiring with a perfect record. Winning Colors will always be remembered as that amazon roan mare who had blazing speed, speed that would carry her to an historic victory in the world's most important race.
PP 1
STEELCURTAIN LADY 33/1 M Brownlow ( 7 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 0% )
NWRC
Gold Crest daughter is trained by steelcrtnd. She has just two starts under her belt to date, having broken her maiden in a MSW going 7 first time out, and then finishing up the track in a NW2x allowance at the same distance last time. She stretches out to 9f and faces some stiff competition in here. Her pedigree suggests that she'll have trouble coping with the extra distance, as she has Mr. Prospector line sires in all three slots. With the stretchout, expect low percentage rider to send from his rail position. But not expecting her to be around when the real racing starts. Outsider.
PP 2
RUMBLEBUTT 16/1 G Parks ( 17 - 2 - 2 - 4 - 12% )
DelPenn
Daughter of Sadler's Wells is conditioned by jakematt. She is bred to run all day, being out of an Ela-Mana-Mou mare. She is also bred to get better with age. Both are proving true, as her best races have come recently, as not only is she gaining experience with each race, but she is getting some more distance to work with. Doesn't seem to have much in the way of early speed, but at the same time she doesn't have much of a late kick either. Kind of a plodder who likes to pick up the pieces. She should benefit by the 9f distance she'll get, but don't know if she's at the stage in her career where she can beat these type of horses. Maybe sometime down the road, possibly at a longer trip, she'll become a legitimate stakes horse. But for now, she looks like one who'll simply plod along for a minor share, if that.
PP 3
DEXAMPHETAMINE 12/1 G Bungard ( 52 - 6 - 7 - 6 - 12% )
Queensland
Speedy morrie conditioned daughter of Eagle Eyed is a consistent sort, as she has yet to finish out of the money in six starts. She has registered two victories, one coming against maidens at 8f, and the other against NW1x allowance types at 6f. Her pedigree is that of a sprinter or miler, however. Her last start came at 8.5f, and in that race she showed her usual speed but faded pretty badly late to finish a well-beaten third. The distance here doesn't figure to help her, and while the rider figures to try and dictate the early pace, she may find the situation just a little too much for her. Pace factor, but probably not much more.
PP 4
PHARGAD MILLIE 29/1 K Mitz ( 10 - 0 - 0 - 2 - 0% )
SERA
Daughter of Sunday Silence, conditioned by morrie, took six starts to break her maiden, but did so in just her second start on the main track. After floundering in her first five starts, all on turf, she responded well to the surface switch, and appears to have a future as a dirt filly. Bred to run a classic distance, she improved noticeably when stretched out to 9.5f last time, as she finished up strongly to take second in a NW2L allowance race. In that start, she ran an okay 76 spf, but she'd have to take another big step forward to threaten in here. At least she is proven at the distance, so that's a plus. Unfortunately, she has absolutely no early speed. It's going to be a difficult task trying to run down some nice horses from behind. With projected improvement, she could work her way into a minor share of the purse, but don't think she can threaten for the win just yet.
PP 5
BLUEGRASS SERENADE 16/1 W Massey ( 10 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 10% )
East West Connection
Filly trained by hornfrog2 enters this race off two straight victories, the last of which came in a track-restricted affair at 8.5f. She has nice early speed, and that has allowed her to be successful to a degree thus far in her career. Being by Unbridled's Song out of an Apalachee mare, she figures to be a miler and not much more. That looks to be the case at this point, as she was life and death to hold on last time against a weak field. The extra half-furlong she encounters in here is going to do her no favors. Will likely to try to wing it out front, but she'll have some company. Not expecting her to last.
PP 6
WELL KINGS AGAIN 13/1 F Gossett ( 74 - 18 - 10 - 10 - 24% )
Nexis
Well-bred daughter of Wild Again, trained by thomkal, has two wins to her credit thus far, one coming in a MSW going 6f on dirt and the other in an allowance at one mile on turf. Her highest speed figure to date is just an 80, which wouldn't threaten in here. In addition to that, she is another who figures to have some trouble negotiating this 9f trip. Last time out, she was tried at 8.5f against allowance company, and she quit badly to finish 17 lengths behind the winner. Based on that race and her low figures overall, she just doesn't figure to be able to put up the kind of effort required to contend. Longshot.
PP 7
EARN THE GOLD 20/1 M Wallace ( 68 - 7 - 11 - 7 - 10% )
New South Wales
Thunder Gulch filly, conditioned by brew, has registered just one win from eight career starts to date. She broke her maiden at 9f on turf four races back. So she is proven at the distance, but that came against much weaker company and on a different surface. After that victory, she was pitched in against stakes company the next three times. While she did finish second in an ungraded stakes two races back, that came against a small field, and she was no threat to the winner. Last time out, when tested against G3 company, she was completely outclassed and finished a distant last. While the trip may not prove to be her undoing, the class probably will. Appears to be taking on way more than she can handle right now.
PP 8
MINSC AND BOO(GB) 16/1 T Tippins ( 13 - 2 - 0 - 1 - 15% )
Nebraska
Daughter of Warning races for trainer conquestor. She has improved quite a bit since being stretched out two races back. She finished up very nicely in her first race around two turns to finish second going 8.5f against allowance company. Last time out, she didn't threaten at that same distance, but she did pass quite a few horses late, which is promising when you're trying to figure out whether a horse will be able to take on more distance successfully. While Warning is primarily a sire of milers, she has stamina on the dam's side (Caerleon x Habitat). So it's quite possible that she'll improve at this 9f trip. Another who doesn't really have any early speed, so she is at the mercy of the pace. But her race two starts back says that she may possess a decent late kick, so with some improvement she has an outside chance at hitting the board at a price.
PP 9
YEV NINER 3/1 W McClendon ( 67 - 6 - 13 - 11 - 9% )
Vermont
Nureyev filly, trained by fatattack, enters as the favorite, as she should be. Broke her maiden first time out like a filly who had some serious potential, and she has not disappointed. She was mistakenly tried in the Breeders' Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly race three races back, but in her two starts since that, she has been flawless. She won the G2 Boca Stakes with a furious late rally, in solid time. She then followed that up with a win in Vermont's trial for these Equinics. In that start, she once again finished up powerfully to win going away. She proved that the 9f distance was no problem for her, and she gets some suspect speed to chase in here. VT's leading rider accepts a return call, another positive. 3/1 looks awfully generous for a horse of this quality. Will be tough to deny.
PP 10
CHARLIE'S TIGER 7/1 N Lawton ( 71 - 10 - 15 - 8 - 14% )
Team Independent Unity
Unfashionably bred filly, trained by calle, has outrun her pedigree by quite a ways thus far. Began her career with two straight victories, both against open company. The second came under difficult circumstances, as she tried 9f in just the second start of her career. However, she came through with a big effort, earning an 86 spf, huge for that time of the year. Throwing out her start on the turf, she came back with three in-the-money finishes in stakes races, two of which were graded stakes. While her last start was a bit disappointing, it could have been just a prep for the main event here. Proven at the distance, and has proven class. Has enough speed to lay close, which gives her a tactical advantage over her main rival. Don't think she is the best filly in the race, but she's not very far behind. A definite contender.
PP 11
HEART OF ASIA(FR) 22/1 L Owens ( 5 - 2 - 1 - 0 - 40% )
Ireland
If you ignore the last start of this zinjahal2 trained daughter of Hernando, you wouldn't give her much chance in this spot. After all, she had struggled against lesser competition and didn't surpass 77 in the speed figure department. That all changed however when she was stretched out on dirt for the first time last out. In that race, an ungraded stakes, she ran strong throughout to finish second, earning a fine 88 spf. That race came after a 10-week layoff as well, so it's reasonable to think that she needed the race, meaning she could improve even more in here. While this does represent a step up in class, it's a lot easier for young horses to make that jump, especially if they've shown that they have the ability to compete at this level. If she repeats her last race, she's got a legitimate shot at a huge price.
PP 12
CRASS KELLY 8/1 B Langhorne ( 67 - 10 - 9 - 12 - 15% )
ASR
Filly has proven to be quite a claim for trainer gavinw, who took her for a paltry $3500. She has been primarily a turf horse to this point, but her dirt form is strong. In just three starts on the mian track, she has two wins and a third. We can look at her turf form however to gauge her distance capabilities, as she appears to be equally fast on both surfaces. In her last start, at 9f, she faded pretty badly. She also ran poorly in the Breeders' Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly at 8.5f. While that was obviously a tough race, the very poor effort doesn't bode well for her chances to negotiate the 9f here. She has a touch of class, which is always hard to ignore, but just don't see her being able to keep pace late at this distance.
PP 13
EXBOURNE'S BEAUTY 11/1 G Blackmore ( 43 - 8 - 5 - 4 - 19% )
Viking Racing
Daughter of Western Cat, conditioned by futurefarm, has shown a fair amount of promise in her four starts thus far. Broke her maiden in handy fashion first time out, and then followed that up with two strong efforts sprinting. In her last start, she was stretched out to 8.5f and tried against stakes company for the first time. She handled the transition well, as she ran evenly all the way around to end up second in okay time. Bred to be a miler, so don't know if she'll be able to beat these types of horses at this distance. While she did run decently last time, it wasn't the type of effort that made you think there was more in the tank. Draws a tough outside post, and faces a difficult task trying to step up against G1 company in just the fifth start of her career, at a distance that is a question mark. Slight possibility, but not taking an optimistic view.
PP 14
BUTTER ME UP 9/2 D Givins ( 74 - 14 - 14 - 11 - 19% )
Minnesota
Second choice is trained by springtime. Daughter of Sicyos has just one win to her credit from nine starts, but starts as one of the favorites based on her strong overall speed figures. Has run as high as 90 spf, which came going 6.5f. Since being stretched out, she has run fourth in three straight starts. In each of those, she flashed brief speed before fading late. To her credit, two of those starts came against graded competition. Still, with a tough outside post to deal with in here, she looks to be up against it. Does seem to have a decent amount of ability, and those types of horses can never be counted out, but she appears to be beatable in here. The low odds aren't particularly attractive either given the situation.
PP 15
TAKEITLIKEAWOMAN 24/1 F Shaw ( 31 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 13% )
Terrapin Jockey Club
Daughter of Elnadim, conditioned by johneweb, got the worst of the post position draw. Even worse is the fact that she prefers to run near the pace. She has yet to run more than a 75 speed figure, which puts her at an immediate disadvantage. Also, she doesn't seem to have much in the way of the stamina department. While she did manage to win an allowance race at one mile, it came on turf in a weak track-restricted affair. In her last two starts, both against stakes company, she was no factor at all. The extra distance she faces in here isn't going to help her at all either. Longshot.
PICKS/BET:
There appears to be a clear cut separation between the contenders and the pretenders in here. There are three horses that seem to stand out above the rest. A few others may be able to pick up the pieces and worm their way into the trifecta. The distance is the main factor, as many of these just don't figure to handle the 9f trip.
Win: #9 Yev Niner
Place: #10 Charlie's Tiger
Show: #11 Heart Of Asia
Longshot: #8 Minsc And Boo
3/1 seems extremely generous on what appears to be the best filly in the race by a ways. So let's play her straight and key her in the exotics. We'll also play our third pick across the board, as the odds seem way too high on her.
$200 win: 9 ($200)
$50 exactas: 9 with 10, 11 ($100)
$20 exactas: 10, 11 with 9 ($40)
$5 trifectas: 9 with 10, 11 with 4, 8, 10, 11 ($30)
$20 WPS: 11 ($60)
Total bets: $430.
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