The Need For Speed-The Precisionist Sprint
This race honors Precisionist, a premier sprinter from the 1980's. Of course
I didn't know that when Mano asked us to include a little bit about the horse
the race was named after. I never knew I'd have to do research when I took
this job-why couldn't have I got the Nureyev to report on?
Actually I'm glad now that I had to find out who the heck this Precisionist
was. What a champion he was! In a forty race career stretched from when he
was two to when he was seven, Precisionist had an amazing 20-10-4 record with
most of those finishes being in Stakes races. One of those wins was the
Breeders Cup Sprint, so you know he had to be good to win that race.
And the horses entered in this race will need to be real good in this race,
the ultimate chase for speed. They will have to be precise-definite and
exact-if they plan to come out on top in this field. All of the entries have
the chance to do just that.
Before the analysis, a quick, but heartfelt thanks for Flagdown for
sponsoring this race.
PP 1 Yanqui's Pride (15/1)-Seattle Slew X Carson City X Darshaan(ENG)
Trainer: Yanquiman, Representing: Nexis, Record 13-6-2-0
Hard to believe this four year old could have 15-1 odds after breaking the
110 SP barrier in two of his last three races. The last race seems to have
been just a prep for the big race, so I'd throw out that result. Likes to
stalk from a short distance behind the front-runners, so may have a problem
catching what will be superior front-end speed in this race. A dark horse
pick at nice odds.
PP 2 Project En La Deer (22/1)-Deerhound X With Approval X Formidable
Trainer: Daydreamer, Representing: NWRC, Record: 16-5-5-2
Another four year old mid-stalker with odds that seem too high for him.
Prepped for this race with a run in the muck last time out, breaking 100 SP
and finishing third. Has broken 110 twice at 6 furlongs, but both of those
probably came against some lesser competition in owner restricted races.
Could be another that surprises, but seems in a little over his head here.
PP 3 Night Plug (15/1)-Tough Knight X Plugged Nickle X Gaelic Dancer
Trainer: Cream, Representing: NSW, Record: 60-16-20-6
This 7 year old veteran has been through the wars before, and this looks like
another tough battle. Nice to see a not so royally bred pedigree. Last four
races have been at this distance, two of them stakes, and he finished first
in one, second in the others. However Night Plug's going to need find one
more gear here and better that most recent best of 111 SP to win here. He's
yet another mid-stalker.
PP 4 Down The River (23/1)-Seeking the Gold X Riverman X Francis S.
Trainer: Citation, Representing: Missouri, Record: 51-13-13-3
This nicely bred five year old seems out of form as of late, finishing 13th
out of 14th in a Grade 1 stakes, two races back. Not a good sign. The race
before that though he ran a 111 and finished second in a stakes. Tried to
prep for this race in a 5 furlong Vermont allowance and finished sixth. Has
Gossett on board and that can only help, but looks like he'll need to grab
and keep the early speed to do any good here, and I just don't think that's
possible with all these stalkers.
PP 5 Blue Ant (5/1)-Pleasant Colony X Cure The Blues X Special Lineage
Trainer: Tfv, Representing: Nebraska, Record: 47-25-5-6
One of the sim's greats graces us with his presence in this race, but is the
eight year old longing for better and younger days? He's raced exclusively at
6 furlongs as far back I can see, and has been caught at the end of some of
them. Will the extra half-furlong spell doom for this front-runner? Let's
hope that last race was just a prep for this race. He never got to the front
in the last two big G1 races he's been in, the Breeder Cup and ASR Sprint.
You have to respect his obvious talent though.
PP 6 Barely That Auggie (4/1)-Mr Prospector X Storm Cat X Gold and Myrrh
Trainer: Lasthope, Representing: Vermont, Record: 27-12-5-4
This seven year old represents the home track and with those odds will
certainly be one of the favorites to win it. And how can you not like that
sire/dam-sire combination? But the question is what type of race will he run?
He's run identical 123 SP's in two races, one running at the front, one
coming from way way back. That second 123 came in his last race where he
roared back from ten furlongs at second call and five and one-half furlongs
at third call to win. I really think that is his better style, and if he runs
that way here all I can say is watch out.
PP 7 Saint Rapid (28/1)-Deputy Minister X Wajima X Sharpen Up(GB)
Trainer: Performanc, Representing: Minnesota, Record: 20-5-4-3
This guy will play an part in the speed duel, but if recent history is any
indication, will fade quickly. Has not topped 110 SP in his last six races
and add to that a so-so jockey, and I just can't see this guy being a factor
at all.
PP 8 Hard Cat (9/2)-Storm Cat X Alydar X Damascus
Trainer: Eternity, Representing: Independents, Record: 26: 10-5-5
This should be an interesting race for this five year old. He's broken 120
twice recently at 6.5 and then 6 furlongs and won neither. However two races
back at 7 furlongs he had perhaps his highest SP ever, a 127. He prepped for
this race with an easy win in a 7 furlong allowance. Will this week's
distance be too short for him? You have to think he'll be there near the end,
but will a poor jockey be able to handle a horse of this caliber? Look for
him to be stalking near the front if he's going to be a factor in this race.
PP 9 Biagi Desert (22/1)-Green Desert X Shernazar(IRE) X Vice Regent
Trainer: Jslorde, Representing: ASR, Record: 36-14-5-0
This slop-loving four year old (10 of his 14 wins have been on off-tracks)
didn't get a wet track here and that should be all she wrote from this guy.
He is coming off a win in his last race though, in the slop but at this
distance. He's also broken 120 SP recently, but I think the moon and stars
would have to align just right with an average jockey up top for that to
happen here.
PP 10 Blue Fantasy (21/1)-Bluebird X Alydar X Fleet Nasrullah
Trainer: Handily, Representing: Maryland, Record: 14-4-2-2
This four year old has amongst the least experience of the field, and seems
to be running in the wrong spot. All of his most recent races have been at
7.5 furlongs or more. He has wracked up 2 wins and a place in three career
sprint races though. He's coming off an 118 SP in his last race, a 7.5
furlong allowance, by far his best in his most recent races. He'd have to top
that again in order to be a factor here. He has a solid, though not
spectacular jockey though. He'll likely try to take part in the early speed
duel.
PP 11 Omaha Achiever (99/1)-Truckee X Highland Blade X Hail To Reason
Trainer: Meng, Representing: Queensland, Record: 11-2-3-1
Well those odds say it all don't they. He'll have to overachieve in a big way
when you've only broken 100 once in your last eight races. He'll try to take
part in the front-end speed, but with a low end jockey, I can't see him
staying there for very long. Still it's an honor just to be representing your
resident track, so I wish him a lot of luck.
PP 12 Lt. Thug (8/1)-Gulch X Stalwart X Twist The Axe
Trainer: Celticcros, Representing: Ireland, Record: 27-11-3-2
Ireland's wily track manager trains this six year old beauty, and if recent
form accounts for anything in the sim, then look out for this guy. Last time
out he ran a blistering 120 in a Grade I win at South Carolina. He's got a
great jock in Givens, and is running at his preferred distance, but drew an
outside post where he has a dismal record. Looks like Thug likes to hang out
near, but not at, the front and pick them off at the very end. He'll have to
keep up with a fast pace to do that though, and I'm not sure he's up to it.
He's certainly one to watch though.
PP 13 Alex Cheyenne (23/1)-Forty Niner X Star De Naskra X Danzig
Trainer: Manowar, Representing: DelPenn, Record: 23-5-6-4
To hear beloved co-Equinics organizer Mano speak of it, he's a horrible
trainer. Alex here shows that he's also a horrible liar. This beautifully
bred four year old is coming off a nice prep race, a 114 SP and a second
place finish at a allowance at today's distance, but that's his best result
of late. He's got a great jock though in McClendon, and he should be able to
keep him up at the front for at least the first half of the race.
Unfortunately there's a second half, and I don't think Alex will be able to
keep up.
PP 14 A. P. FOO (64/1)-A.P. Indy X Royal Ski X More Horsepower
Trainer: JayJay99, Representing: Germany, Record: 19-6-3-3
Unfortunately the Dam Dam-sire of this race is all too appropriate for what
this four year old needs here in this race. He hasn't broken 110 in his last
group of races, though he has won at today's distance and is coming off an
allowance win (albeit with a 92 SP) in his last race. Drew novice jockey
Lilbitfarm (he of 2 career races), and he'll probably just try to keep this
guy out of everyone's way.
PP 15 Cavern Captor (41/1)-Lion Cavern X Staff Writer X Explodent
Trainer: Craftygirl, Representing: SERA, Record: 26-4-5-4
This four year old colt has ne'er do well jockey Mike Wallace on board, so
that's the kiss of doom right there. ;) Seriously though CC just doesn't look
to have the talent to win here, with a high SP of 104 in recent races, and
only one win. Will probably try to be part of the front speed chase.
PP 16 Time to Fly Pye (22/1)-Caller I.D. X Pancho Villa X Theatrical (IRE)
Trainer: Lordpye3, Representing: East-West, Record: 20-6-4-1
East-West's erstwhile manager, Lord Pye, trains this nicely bred four year
old, and has a hot jockey in Dorsey in charge. He's coming off a disappointed
finish in a race just two weeks ago, so he could very well just have been
trying to get Sharp for this race. He does have talent and certainly could be
a factor here, but he'll need a career best race to do so. Looks to be a
mid-stalker type.
PP 17 Over with the Wood (6/1)-Woodman X Mr. Leader X Tentam
Trainer: Dannejaka, Representing: Vikings, Record: 28-12-3-5
This four year old, with one of my personal favs Woodman as sire is another
speed-burner and will challenge for the lead right from the start. He's
coming off three straight races at today's distance with two wins and a show
to show for it. However that third place finish came in his most recent when
he was caught at the end of the ungraded stakes race. He's not raced in a
graded stakes in at least his last eight races, and had the unfortunate luck
to draw Stalcup as his jock. Stalcup is usually a reliable jock, but so far
is 0-14 to start the season. Drawing the outside post didn't help either.
Analysis and Bet: Well in sprint races either the early speed takes it or
not. There's certainly a lot of early speed in this race, but I think all
have questions on whether they can keep it going at the end. So I'm going to
go with a stalker to win here.
Win: #6 Barely That Auggie
Place: #8 Hard Cat
Show: #5 Blue Ant
Could Surprise: #12 Lt. Thug, #16 Time To Fly Pye, #17 Over With The Wood
Darkhorses: #1 Yanqui's Pride, #2 Project En La Deer, #3 Night Plug, #10 Blue
Fantasy
As for a bet, since this is the Equinics, we'll go with a bigger bet than
normal from me. I'll take $100 to Win on #6, and a $20 boxed exacta on #6,
#8, and #5.
Good luck to all the participants, regardless of finish, you've done your
resident stable proud!
