In this race, we honor Best Pal, one of the greatest California-breds of all time. He was a grand old gelding who ran his heart out for six years on the California circuit. While most of his shining moments came in the Golden State, he also finished second in the 1991 Kentucky Derby. He finished his career with over $5.6 million in earnings. Unfortunately, he passed away a few years back due to a heart attack, but he remains one of the all-time fan favorites in California.
PP 1
THEIR BOOK(IRE) 13/1 G Bungard ( 52 - 6 - 7 - 6 - 12 )
New South Wales
This shagsnags trainee enters this race in fine form, having finished in the money in his last 7 starts. He has really started to come into his own as of late, as he has defnitely taken to these marathon distances. Achieved a career high in his last start, earning a 102 spf, just one start after hitting 100 for the first time. He gets a good draw and has plenty of speed to take advantage of his rail post position. However, current form can only get you so far. In this case, the class just isn't there. He has come up short every time he's tackled stakes company, and now he takes on some of the best distance specialists in the sim. A fine allowance horse? Yes. An Equinics champion? Definitely not. He has ample stamina, so he's not likely to embarass himself. But just don't see him hanging with these guys when the real running starts.
PP 1
PP 2
ADMIRAL DOC 99/1 C Jamison ( 26 - 2 - 4 - 1 - 8% )
DelPenn
This madamson trained son of Brilliant Protege is the hopeless longshot of this field, and for good reason. Failed for a 13.5K tag just two starts back, and now takes on G1 competition. In addition to that, he seems to have a defined limit as far as distance is concerned. 10f looks to be about as much as he can handle. He shows two miserable failures at 14f and 16f against inferior competition. He's representing his residency, so there's something to say for that I guess, but he is clearly out of his element in this spot.
PP 3
GOLD PETAL 46/1 R Lilbitfarm ( 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 50% )
Nexis
This swale007 trained son of the great sire Sadler's Wells enters this race having gone winless since week 1138. He has failed at short odds several times as of late, and his form appears to have taken a turn for the worse. He has been successful at this 16f distance in the past, but his recent fades against allowance company suggest that he's up against it here. He has a touch of speed, so he should be within reach early from his inside draw, but similar to the rail horse, he doesn't look to be capable of staying with the leaders late. Outsider.
PP 4
OUR CROWNS 24/1 G Parks ( 17 - 2 - 2 - 4 - 12% )
Vermont
Grand old 11yo campaigner is a true professional who just loves to win races, having taken an amazing 18 of his 29 starts, and is an unbelievable 9-for-9 at this distance. There's no questioning this guy's heart and determination, but we can definitely question his class. He made a killing feasting on starter allowance horses up until his last 3 starts. The one time he tackled stakes company, he found the going a little too rough. In his next start, over this racetrack at this distance under this rider, he redeemed himself with a victory over Danger Zone, one of the top 3yo marathoners of last year. Last time out, he coasted to an easy win over allowance foes. He prefers to run from just off the pace, which could put him in the garden spot. He figures to be right there turning for home, at which point class will tell. Can he take a step forward and beat the best, or will he find this company a little too tough? Longshot possibility.
PP 5
WRITER ORANGE 11/1 H Wilmsmeyer ( 9 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 11% )
SERA
7yo son of Java Gold and conditioned by trooper7 has had a brilliant career, banking over $4.3 million in earnings. He has also had his fair share of success at 16f, being a stakes winner at the distance as well as being graded stakes placed. He runs equally well on turf and dirt, and has been versatile enough to be competitive against the best anywhere from 10f to 16f. He enters this race however winless since week 1159, and his last several starts have been particularly discouraging. Last time out, he struggled home a dismal last in a minor stakes race at 13f. As a late runner in a race with no shortage of early speed, everything should set up well for him if he fires. But one has to wonder if those 62 starts have finally caught up with him. He's never been that big on winning anyhow, and at this late stage in his career that hasn't seemed to change. If he fires his best shot, he is a contender, but just don't see that happening based on his most recent string of races.
PP 6
ROTTEN BOW 19/1 M Dorsey ( 46 - 9 - 7 - 6 - 20% )
East West Connection
This sheeba trained 6yo can't seem to settle on a running style. In his last 8 starts, he was a huge closer, then became a die hard frontrunner, then changed back to being a closer again. He's come a long way for a horse who just broke his maiden in week 1187. Since then, he has been pretty much an allowance horse, with his lone stakes start resulting in a 19-length drubbing. While he has been most successful to date as a miler, he has the pedigree to stretch out being a son of Rainbow Quest. In his latest, he closed a tad to finish an okay 4th at 12f against NW3x types. Still, it's hard to look past the class question. Even if he were to handle the extra 4f, he'd have to take a huge leap forward to contend with these. If you're looking for a longshot, you can probably do better. In tough.
PP 7
YANKEE ALPHABET 41/1 F Shaw ( 31 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 13% )
NWRC
6yo son of Zilzal, conditioned by cab, is yet another who looks like a nice allowance horse but not much more. He enters this race in questionable form, having been beaten double digits in his last 3 starts. He does show a decent effort at 13f four races back, but that only resulted in a second place finish against allowance company. His lone stakes start showing doesn't inspire confidence, as he finished a distant 3rd in a 5-horse field. Doesn't appear to have much speed, so jock will likely have him towards the rear of the field early. Unfortunately, it appears that picking off the stragglers is the best he can hope for. Next.
PP 8
ALI'S SHOWERS(IRE) 5/1 M Wallace ( 68 - 7 - 11 - 7 - 10% )
Viking Racing
Lightly raced 8yo trained by kartago is a typical plodder. He never seems to run a bad race, but he isn't particularly flashy either. He can handle just about any marathon distance, and he seems to be in solid form going into this one. He is a multiple stakes winner at 12f, and just three starts back finished 3rd in a G1 event at 14f. His lone start at this distance resulted in an okay 5th place finish against G1 company. 105 spf is about as fast as he gets based on his most recent races, which may or may not be good enough to win this race. Regardless, he should be able to settle off the pace in midpack and make a sustained run to the wire in the late stages. Hard to say whether he's good enough period, or if he's good enough now, but expect him to put in his usual solid effort.
PP 9
ROYALTY BEER BELLY 7/1 G Blackmore ( 43 - 8 - 5 - 4 - 19% )
Team Independent Unity
This gmstables trained horse is a model of consistency, having finished in the money in 11 straight and 23 of 27 overall. He is right at home at just about any marathon distance, and is a multiple stakes winner. He has plenty of early speed but doesn't need the early lead to be effective. He has never faced horses of this quality though, and while he is a stakes winner at 16f, it's quite possible that 2 miles isn't his optimum distance. In his last two starts at the distance, he held huge leads in midstretch only to get nailed late. Still, the fact that he manages to finish in the money in just about every start means he warrants respect. Probably not the one to beat, but definitely one to consider for the exotics.
PP 10
AWAY FROM GUN 20/1 B Child ( 63 - 12 - 6 - 10 - 19% )
Queensland
6yo tigereyes trained son of Cryptoclearance looks to be way out of his element in this spot. He's done okay in allowance company going much shorter, but this is a completely different type of race. Not only will he have to face top notch competition, but he will be forced to travel a distance that appears to be well beyond his reach. His pedigree complies with that assessment. The longest he's run so far is 9.5f, and that start resulted in a dismal last place finish. Would be a shocker.
PP 11
TUCK ASH 37/1 F Gossett ( 74 - 18 - 10 - 10 - 24% )
Germany
4yo bucephalus trained colt sure picked a great time to hit his stride. If you discount his last race, you'd say that he has no chance in a race like this. But that last start was a beauty, as in his first against older he annihilated a decent 14f stakes field to win going away in good time. He is a newly turned 4yo, so it's possible that he's just an improving colt who is getting good at the right time. It could also be argued that his last start was just a fluke. The guess here is that it's the former. He has shown flashes of marathon ability in the past, having won a 13f allowance back in week 1201 rather handily. His only start at 16f resulted in a comfortable win, albeit against inferior company. Another plus is the rider, who is arguably the best in the world. Not going to be super optimistic and say that he is a legitimate threat for it all, but you can't overlook those generous odds. Has to at least be considered given the price.
PP 12
MECHANICAL RUFFIAN 24/1 D Givins ( 74 - 14 - 14 - 11 - 19% )
Ireland
This 6yo son of Polish Navy is conditioned by quietman49, and comes into this race in poor form, having gone winless over the past year. He is coming off a lengthy layoff as well, as he is unraced since failing in a CPU-value restricted allowance race back in week 1194. It's difficult to see why he is being tested in this race, so maybe it's simply a case of not having another alternative. He routinely gets drilled by allowance horses, and the furthest distance he's ever been tested at is 10f. His two races at that distance saw him show brief speed only to falter noticeably late. Appears destined for a back-of-the-pack finish.
PP 13
SWAMPY HONOR 5/2 W McClendon ( 67 - 6 - 13 - 11 - 9% )
ASR
7yo tmica trained son of Hero's Honor enters as the favorite, and for good reason. Has been on top of his game as of late, having rattled off three consecutive victories, two of which came against graded company. Three races back, he destroyed the field in the G3 Victory Marathon at 14f. In his next start, he registered another easy win, this time in the G1 Oldtimer Cup, beating one of his main rivals in this field. Even more impressive than that is the 110 spf he earned in that start. That is huge for a race at that distance. The only question mark surrounding him is the 16f distance. In his lone start at this trip, he failed to fire in the G1 ASR Cupm running a poor 9th. However, he is in much better form now, and deserves the benefit of the doubt. He has a wicked kick going 14f, so I see no reason why he shouldn't be able to stretch it another quarter mile. Perennial VT riding champ takes the call, and that is a plus. If the speed really comes back, he will be the one most likely to benefit. Definitely the one to beat.
PP 14
LITE BRO 9/1 E Stinson ( 12 - 3 - 0 - 0 - 25% )
Nebraska
Son of Affirmed, trained by jungleboy, is another 16f specialist, having won his last five starts at the trip. In two of his last three races at the distance, he's topped 100 spf, no easy accomplishment. Entered his last race having won 6 of his previous 7 races, all stakes races. But in that 14f allowance, he ran up the track. It's possible that it served strictly as a prep for the big event, in which case it can be discarded. That's the feeling here. While he has yet to tackle graded stakes company, his consistency and his speed figures say that he should be able to handle the step up. Likes to settle in midpack before launching his rally, which would leave him in a great spot turning for home. Will need to take his game to the next level to come home a winner, but that is a definite possibility. Big chance.
PP 15
FRIO DAISY DUKES 11/1 F Ford ( 10 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 0% )
Minnesota
7yo mare trained by newmerv takes on the boys, but that's nothing new for her. She does it with some regularity. She did manage to win a stakes race at this distance against open company, but it came against a pretty weak field, as she won by open lengths but earned an ordinary 88 spf for the effort. Faced a few of these in the G1 ASR Cup and G3 Victory Marathon, but she was no factor in either of those races. In addition to that, she seems to be stretching it when running these marathon distances. She does have some speed, and will likely be a part of the early pace brigade, but she figures to be one of those backing up when the racing begins. Early factor, and not much more.
PP 16
OUT ON THE DANCE 8/1 B Langhorne ( 67 - 10 - 9 - 12 - 15% )
Terrapin Jockey Club
5yo trained by theorchard shows sort of a strange pattern, as he's raced strictly at distances of one mile or less with the exception of one start. In that one start, he nearly wired a stakes field at 13f. Has been struggling at those shorter trips, so the stretch out in distance makes sense. However, don't think that this is the spot to do so. He gets a miserable draw, and the rider will be hard pressed to clear the field from there. His strong effort in that 13f stakes was probably partially the result of a clear lead, something that he'll never get in this spot. While he does show some potential as a distance horse, he appears to be outgunned at this point in his career, and the race shape is not going to do him any favors either. Another who will probably be somewhat of a factor early, but that's about it.
PICKS/BET:
There appears to be quite a bit of early speed for a race of this distance. Of those who figure to push the pace, it looks like Royalty Beer Belly is the one who is most likely to survive the duel. Lite Bro and Swampy Honor appear to be the main contenders, as they should be in a prime spot to take advantage of any pace duel that develops. Then we have fringe contenders like Ali's Showers and Royalty Beer Belly. Longshots to consider for the exotics are Our Crowns and Tuck Ash.
Win: #13 Swampy Honor
Place: #14 Lite Bro
Show: #9 Royalty Beer Belly
Longshot: #11 Tuck Ash
In a 16-horse field, the prices are likely to be high regardless of the outcome, so let's just play some exactas keying our top contenders for first and second, and take a flyer across-the-board bet on our bomber pick.
$20 exacta box: 13-14 ($40)
$10 exactas: 13, 14 with 4, 8, 9, 11 ($80)
$5 exactas: 4, 8, 9, 11 with 13, 14 ($40)
$10 WPS: 11 ($30)
Total bets: $190.
