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"A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse!"
I've mixed my Shakespeare; I trust you'll forgive me. This race's
namesake was the sort of horse that can only be had for a kingdom. A
dark bay or brown daughter of Gallent Romeo, out of the unplaced mare My
Bupers, My Juliet got little respect in her first two starts but quickly
worked her way to the top. A stakes winner in her fifth start. Grade
III-placed, beaten just a head by the future Kentucky Oaks winner, in
her fifth. She could run on, was twice a Grade II winner beyond a mile,
but raw speed was her claim to fame. My Juliet was the 1976 champion
sprinter (the second consecutive year in which the top sprinter was by
Gallant Romeo; the first in which the award went to a filly). She made
eight starts that year and won six, once finishing third against the
colts, once turning the tables and beating not just colts, but
the colt, Bold Forbes, that year's champion three-year-old colt
and winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
My Juliet hung around for one more racing season - her fourth. Again,
she won races. Again, she fared well against the opposite sex. When
all was said and done, she had twenty-four wins and over $500,000 from
thirty-six career starts. Retired to a breeding career, she was a
frequent visitor to the court of Alydar with mixed results, but cemented
her place in history by producing Grade I winners Stella Madrid and Tis
Juliet. The fillies in her namesake race have a long way to go in
matching My Juliet's brilliance...but an Equinics win would sure be a
nice beginning.
#1 Grey Craft (15/1)
Owned and trained by Salgal; ridden by W. McClendon for Team Independent
Unity
Shawklit Won x Known Fact x Hail to Reason
5-0-1 (7) $175k
A rags-to-riches filly, Grey Craft was plucked from a winning debut in a
$3,500 maiden claimer on the turf by Salgal and has only gotten better
since. Win on the dirt? Check. In the slop? Check. On the front and
from a stalking position? Check and check. In stakes company? Try
handly in the Grade III Buckeye Debutante. She lost her jockey at the
start of the 1222 Stakes in Kansas and her unblemished record in the
process, but returned from that race three weeks later to run an honest
third in a seven-furlong stakes. The turnback in distance should help -
she won both her six-furlong starts, including the Debutante. McClendon
has struggled a bit in the new year, but he's still hitting the board at
a nearly 50% clip and still knows where to place his mount for best
effect. In this case, that means on the pace or prompting it.
#2 The Pal Corral (9/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Judatoka; ridden by M. Dorsey for the
Terrapin
Jockey Club
Luhuk x Prosper Fager x Ascot Knight
3-0-2 (7) $353k
The Pal Corral is well-acquainted with big leaps: she went from
maiden-breaker to Grade I winner in as many starts last year. With
double doses sof Mr. Prospector and Dr. Fager in her background, it
should come as no surprise that this is one speedy filly. She tried our
local track in her fourth career start and was pushed through snappy
early fractions before fading to third, a pattern she repeated until her
three-year-old bow in a Maryland allowance. 'Pal led throughout and
clung tenaciously to victory by the length of her nose.
#3 Crafty Lady (11/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Johnse; ridden by R. Lilbitfarm for the
North West
Racing Circuit
Crafty Prospector x Brickcity Salute x Big Burn
1-3-3 (9) $40k
The lady may be crafty, but it remains to be seen how clever new jockey
R. Lilbitfarm is; he's one for two with better-than-average mounts and
finds himself in with the big guns here. His mount? A non-winner of
one other than, but that's a deceptive description. 'Lady may have only
a maiden race in the win column, but she's been on the board in seven of
nine starts and twice against stakes company. She also boasts admirable
versatility, pushing the speedsters faster and faster, or waiting at the
back of the back and rushing past rivals in the late stages. She's due
for a breakthrough; this would be a great choice of place and time.
#4 Sunflower (18/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Lowclaimer; ridden by B. Langhorne for
Nebraska
War Chant x Gone West x Sauce Boat
1-0-0 (2) $7k
Lightly-raced Sunflower still did enough in debut to catch the eye of
Vermont's perennial leading jockey; B. Langhorne will be in the irons
for her first trip outside her home state. The bright chestnut filly
won for fun at first asking, setting the pace and never headed, while
earning a 74 speed rating. She couldn't get her nose in front in her
allowance debut around two turns and was well-beaten in eleventh. Don't
know enough about her yet - could have been class, could have been
distance. She's in deep here and could prove herself any kind.
#5 Mean Grub (19/1)
Owned and trained by Spinster; ridden by G. Bungard for Germany
Drouilly x Magesterial x Will Hays
2-0-4 (9) $49k
Spinster picked this slick dark daughter of Drouilly out of an auction
last spring on a whim and a hunch. Loaded with classy old blood and
overlooked on the tote, she took some time waking up and didn't break
her maiden until her fourth start, where she turned in a polished run to
nip the runner-up by a quarter-length. Next out, in her stakes debut
against colts, it was deja vu all over again as she put in the same run
to win by the same margin. Spinster's little filly was starting to grow
up. She hasn't visited the winner's circle since, but has a pair of
stakes-placings and a gift for rating off the pace.
#6 Eternal Redhead (46/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Joydevil; ridden by G. Parks for DelPenn
National
Friendly Lover x Dr. Blum x Restivo
1-1-2 (7) $21k
Speed kills. If that saying holds true on Saturday, the main track is
going to be littered with bodies. DelPenn sends front-running Eternal
Redhead. The filly may be her own worst enemy; she stalked the pace and
passed rivals for third in her five-furlong debut, then began spurting
to the lead and running very quickly, very early. She always got a
check, but it took six tries to hang on by a nose for that elusive win.
She dueled and burned herself out in her stakes debut to wrap her
two-year-old campaign and enters the Equinics hoping to prove herself
more than a pace factor.
#7 Feu D'Epee (14/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Rawleywill; ridden by G. Blackmore for
A.S.R.
Feu D'Enfer x Crusader Sword x Spectacular Bid
1-1-0 (2) $18k
They'll have to go through Feu D'Epee for the early lead; this rangy bay
has a turn of foot as sharp as her namesake blade. She recorded a 90
speed rating at first asking, beaten just a quarter-length, and her odds
were considerably shorter when she bounced home in front in her seasonal
debut. We don't know much about her yet, but we can be sure that she'll
be winging it out of the gate and that Blackmore can carry her as far as
she'll go
#8 Wild and Willing (11/1)
Owned and trained by Citation; ridden by F. Gossett for Missouri
Wild Again x El Gran Senor x Seattle Slew
2-3-0 (8) $93k
Gossett is off to a stellar start, winning at a 24% clip, and here takes
the mount on a Grade III-placed filly with - you guessed it - formidable
early speed. Her sire is one of the sim's most overlooked, at least in
this writer's opinion. 'Wild shows a good-number, bad-number pattern,
though the two extremes seem to be edging towards each other. She's
battle-tested against graded company with mixed results and enters this
well-rested from a thirteen-week layoff.
#9 Best Sword (18/1)
Owned and trained by Amybab2; ridden by D. Givins for Vermont
Crusader Sword x Best Turn x Boldnesian
1-1-0 (2) $26k
Crusader Sword is looking more and more like a legitimate sire,
especially of fillies and producing mares. This daughter is
lightly-raced and gets the services of a shipper jockey, the gifted
Givens. She led gate to wire in her maiden-breaker and then ran an
honest second in an Equinics qualifier over this track. That race's
winner defected and so this liver chestnut filly finds herself at the
top of the game in just her third start. She's the hometown girl and
has been training smartly.
#10 Clanofthecavebear (26/1)
Owned and trained by Canismajor; ridden by A. Darling for Queensland
Sadler's Wells x Carson City x Hail to Reason
1-2-0 (10) $25k
Pedigrees don't come much better than this filly's - if you're talking
about a turf router. 'Cavebear wants nothing to do with the grass,
however, and less with a route of ground. Her game is running very,
very fast around one turn. She's cycled through running styles and
finally found a combination that worked in breaking her maiden three
starts back after prompting the speed and kicking free on the turn.
#11 Secret Kat (20/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Danni; ridden by H. Holman for the South
East
Racing Association
Awesome Cat x Secreto x Good Doctor
2-1-1 (5) $60k
Danni takes a chance on H. Holman, who's fared all right with limited
opportunity this month; he'll be in the irons of the pretty bay Secret
Kat, a speed filly who turns back from a mile and a sixteenth for this
race. She was loose on the lead there and run down in the late stages.
The bad news is that she'll have company from the word go in the
Equinics; the good news is that she's won two of three six-furlong
attempts.
#12 Valid Punch (6/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Ttstable35; ridden by T. Allen for Minnesota
Valid Expectations x Two Punch x Hail Emperor
4-0-2 (7) $56kth
A leading freshman sire, Valid Expectations has a good one in the
stakes-winning Valid Punch. The filly won at will in her first start
and has failed to hit the board only once since then. Her speed ratings
look very comparable to others here and she showed grit in her blacktype
win, getting over a sloppy Kansas track and hanging on to prevail by a
nose. T. Allen seems to be slumping, but this is one of many in here
that doesn't take much riding - she'll run hard and stay as long as she
can.
#13 Angel's Vixen (10/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Glendowr; ridden by E. Stinson for Nexis
Miesque's Son x Eastern Echo x Gone West
5-1-0 (9) $153k
Angel's Vixen is as legitimate a star as an Equinics coordinator could
want, ranked in the top forty of her class, a winner in five of nine,
and with more than $150,000 in her bank account. She has the dubious
distinction of being one of the few horses around who could claim to be
dropping in class for her first race as a winner; she broke her maiden
in stakes company early in last year's two-year-old season. A stalker
by trade, she reeled off three more stakes wins sprinting on the dirt, a
streak interrupted only by tries at the turf or going long. Her stretch
to nine furlongs in her season bow resulted in a disapppointing fifth.
Never mind; she dials back to six furlongs in this spot and should run
with anyone here.
#14 Rocco's Reef(Ire) (22/1)
Bred, owned, and trained by Gustav; ridden by B. Child for Ireland
Bugatti Reef(Ire) x Ela-Mana-Mou(Ire) x Tom Fool
2-1-1 (9) $38k
Suitably Irish-bred Rocco's Reef(Ire) must have disappointed in her turf
attempts over at the Forty Shades of Green. It would be hard to stay mad
at her too long, though; running on her preferred surface, 'Rocco rarely
fails to make a late move and has collected her every on the board
finish, with her major win coming in a Utah allowance at a flat mile.
She's been sent around two turns and flattened out in her most recent
starts, but her sprint form suggests she'll be using that added stamina
for a good late kick.
#15 Blue Sky Mine (7/1)
Owned and trained by Dkyoung2; ridden by P. Salibury for New South Wales
Secret Savings x Danzig Dancer x Never Dance
6-1-1 (9) $191k
She's nibbling at the top fifty rankings; a good showing her catapults
Blue Sky Mine into stardom, as if her impressive strike rate wasn't
enough: she's only fallen off the board while trying turf, and was
fourth there. She's ultra-consistent, Grade III-placed, and if her
running lines are any proof, will look to dash away from even the speed
horses. The downside here is P. Salisburg, with one lonely winner from
admittedly limited chances.
#16 Exbourne's Freedom (7/2)
Bred, owned, and trained by Futurefarm; ridden by C. Stalcup for Viking
Racing
Pulpit x Storm Creek x Manzotti
3-1-0 (5) $24k
If you believe in saving the best for last, you'd be well-advised to
take a good hard look at favored Exbourne's Freedom, a filly whose blood
mixes some good young sires and whose breeder has enjoyed serious
success with the Exbourne- clan. This one is yet another speedster and
has the distinction of having toyed with the boys twice in her young
life. Her 96 speed rating earned two back is a notch above what anyone
else has to offer and she earned that while winning at will. She
stumbled at the break of her Grade II try last out and finished sixth
after failing to grab the lead and will have to hope for a better start
here; C. Stalcup is looking for his first winner this year and won't be
much for helping her out.
ANALYSIS AND BET: Let's break this down a little. Our need-the-lead
entries - defined as those fillies who haven't won without leading at
the first call - number seven (Sunflower, Eternal Redhead, Best Sword,
Secret Kat, Valid Punch, Blue Sky Mine, and Exbourne's Freedom). Six
more will be in close attendance (Grey Craft, The Pal Corral, Crafty
Lady, Feu D'Epee, Clanofthecavebear, and to a possibly lesser extent,
Angel's Vixen; they may not demand the lead, but they'll be pushing
those fillies on it. Mean Grub is the race's token true stalker;
Rocco's Reef(Ire) is the only one who has shown any tendency to close
from the cloud. It's likely that some trainers will attempt to take
their fillies back off the lead, but the pace should still be brutal and
by the numbers, the most adjustable entry will likely be the winner.
The first question, then, is who has shown the most ability for
finishing well after a challenge on the lead? Keep Best Sword, Valid
Punch, and Exbourne's Freedom. I think it will a speed rating of 90+ to
win this. Goodbye Best Sword. Now to the pressers; who might be around
after the first half and who has the speed? Keep Grey Craft, possibly
Crafty Lady, Feu D'Epee, and Angel's Vixen. Mean Grub is iffy on speed
ratings, but we'll keep her around for a while. Rocco's Reef(Ire)
doesn't look fast enough and I worry that the speedsters will leave her
with too much to do. Maybe next time.
And now I look at my list of seven and shrug. Grey Craft ran well at
seven furlongs last out and has kicked away from a duel in the past; she
stays in. Crafty Lady is a nice filly and has closed from off the pace,
so maybe I'm not giving her enough credit. Mean Grub...just doesn't
look quick enough. I'll let her beat me. Feu D'Epee is too lightly
raced and too fast from the break. I like her anyway. Valid Punch is
fast and interesting, but I don't like her tendency to be run at in the
stretch; I like my winners pulling away. Sorry. Angel's Vixen does
that and can stalk, keeping herself within range while hopefully still
conserving some energy. Exbourne's Freedom may be the fastest horse on
paper and she has held up to a challenge. So arbitrarily:
Win: Angel's Vixen
Place: Grey Craft
Show: Crafty Lady
Being a coward, I'll take $30 from my pocket and drop $10 in each stop
across the board on #13 Angel's Vixen. And then I'll sit back and watch
the rest of the races; I suggest you do the same.
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